ECON20001 Lecture 10: Inflation, Unemployment and Phillips Curve

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27 Jul 2018
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Dynamic version of as curve: ad curve is a combination of is-lm model and monetary policy rule, as (cid:272)u(cid:396)(cid:448)e is dete(cid:396)(cid:373)i(cid:374)ed (cid:271)(cid:455) opti(cid:373)al (cid:271)eha(cid:448)iou(cid:396) (cid:272)o(cid:373)(cid:271)i(cid:374)e p(cid:396)i(cid:272)e a(cid:374)d (cid:449)ages. Log diffe(cid:396)e(cid:374)(cid:272)e is a(cid:374) app(cid:396)o(cid:454)i(cid:373)ate pe(cid:396)(cid:272)e(cid:374)tage (cid:272)ha(cid:374)ge i(cid:374)flatio(cid:374) is pe(cid:396)(cid:272)e(cid:374)tage (cid:272)ha(cid:374)ge i(cid:374) p(cid:396)i(cid:272)e le(cid:448)el: Dividing both sides by last period"s price level (p-1) gives: higher pe o(cid:396) output (cid:449)o(cid:396)ke(cid:396)s (cid:449)a(cid:374)t highe(cid:396) (cid:449)ages he(cid:374)(cid:272)e p i(cid:374)(cid:272)(cid:396)eases. =(cid:4666)(cid:4667: when = output is e(cid:374)ti(cid:396)el(cid:455) dete(cid:396)(cid:373)i(cid:374)ed (cid:271)(cid:455) p(cid:396)odu(cid:272)ti(cid:448)it(cid:455) (cid:894)a(cid:895) =(cid:4666)(cid:4667) Aside on logs and percentage changes ln(cid:4666)(cid:883)+(cid:1876)(cid:4667) (cid:1876) ln(cid:4666)(cid:4667) ln (cid:4666) 1(cid:4667) 1. Taking the natural log of both sides: ln( 1)=ln(cid:4678) 1(cid:4679)+ ln() Last term is output gap: good approximation when x is small (e. g. ) ln(1. 02) = 0. 019. Output gap: dynamic as curve relates expected inflation and output gap (y-yn, output gap gives % change of deviation of output from its natural level, positi(cid:448)e p(cid:396)odu(cid:272)i(cid:374)g (cid:373)o(cid:396)e tha(cid:374) (cid:374)atu(cid:396)al, negati(cid:448)e p(cid:396)odu(cid:272)i(cid:374)g less tha(cid:374) (cid:374)atu(cid:396)al.

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