ECON 209 Lecture Notes - Lecture 22: Procyclical And Countercyclical, Real Interest Rate, Autarky

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2018_04_11 ECON 209
Lecture 22: Chapter 31
31.1 Facts and Definitions
I. Review
A. If the budget deficit is positive - the government needs to borrow
B. Negative deficit - the government has a budget surplus (the stock of debt will decrease)
C. (Transfers are part of the expenditure → part of net transfers)
II. Deficits and Debt in Canada
A. The federal budget was in deficit every year between 1975-1997
B. In 1998: the federal government had a budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP
C. The budget was balanced or in surplus between 1998 and 2008, the onset of the most
recent recession
D. By the 2009-2010 fiscal year, tax revenues dropped sharply and program spending
increased: the budget situation had changed
E. By 2015-2016: government budget planned for an overall surplus
1. Debt-service payments of $25.7 billion and primary budget surplus of $27.1
billion
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F. Increase in the level of debt as a percentage of GDP
G. The amount of debt without knowing the size of the economy/GDP is useless information
31.2 Two Analytical Issues
I. The Stance of Fiscal Policy
A. Fiscal policy is the use of the government’s tax and spending policies in an effort to
influence the level of GDP
B. For a given set of tax and spending policies, the budget deficit is negatively related to real
GDP
1. The budget deficit function shows this negative relationship between the deficit
and Y
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II. The Budget Deficit Function
∆D = Borrowing = G + (i x D) - T
= G + (i x D) - (t x Y)
Budget deficit ( + )
Budget deficit ( - )
III. The budget deficit function G + (i x D) - t
IV. Negatively related to the level of GDP
V. Fix the level of output → then you can talk about changes in fiscal policy
VI. The Stance of Fiscal Policy
A. For a given set of expenditure and taxation policies, the budget deficit rises as real GDP
falls, and falls as real GDP rises
B. The budget deficit function is a relationship that plots, for a given fiscal policy, the
government’s budget deficit as a function of the level of real GDP
C. Fiscal policy determines the position of the budget deficit function
D. Changes in real GDP lead to movements along a given budget deficit function
VII. Structural and Cyclical Budget Deficits
A. When real GDP equals Y*, there is no cyclical component to the budget deficit
B. Whatever deficit then exists is the structural budget deficit
C. The structural budget deficit is sometimes called the cyclically adjusted deficit
Bt = 100 B≠ Bt + 1
Bt + 1 = 100 + x
It would be:
Increase in G or decrease in T Decrease in Y
Structural BD
Use: Y*
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Document Summary

If the budget deficit is positive - the government needs to borrow. A: negative deficit - the government has a budget surplus (the stock of debt will decrease) C. (transfers are part of the expenditure part of net transfers) Ii: the federal budget was in deficit every year between 1975-1997. B: the budget was balanced or in surplus between 1998 and 2008, the onset of the most. Increase in the level of debt as a percentage of gdp. F: the amount of debt without knowing the size of the economy/gdp is useless information. Gdp and y: the budget deficit function shows this negative relationship between the deficit. = borrowing = g + (i x d) - t. = g + (i x d) - (t x y) The budget deficit function g + (i x d) - t. Fix the level of output then you can talk about changes in fiscal policy.

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