POLI 347 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Likud
26 Oct 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
October 16, 2018 / Israeli-Egyptian Peace, 1977-79
Negotiations, Peace, and Compromise
The Linked Costs of Failure at Camp David (Stein)
• Leaders are constrained in their negotiating behavior by strategic and domestic
(economic and political) variables
• Leaders “learned” over the course of negotiations to worry less about relative gains and
more on avoiding absolute loss
• Fear of negotiation’s failure as a result of unsuccessful bargaining was the driving
factor in pushing leaders to get the deal done
• These leaders end up shaping the international structure, rather than being constrained
by them, as structural realists argue
Object of Negotiation: The Sinai Peninsula
Timeline of events:
• 1973: Arab-Israeli War ends in stalemate; Egypt fails to retake Sinai Peninsula by force
• 1972-5: Convinced that the US would never let Israel lose in battle, Egyptian Pres. Sadat
begins exploring the possibility of switching superpower patrons from USSR to USA
• 1977: Sadat becomes first Arab leader to visit Israel; proposes land-for-peace deal in
address to Israeli Knesset (parliament)
• 1978: US Pres. Carter hosts Sadat and Israeli PM Begin for negotiations at Camp David,
MD
• 1978: Sadat and Begin sign a peace deal: Israel returns Sinai Peninsula to Egypt; Egypt
gives Israel diplomatic recognition and peace deal
• 1979: Deal is finalized on the White House lawn; Carter hosts
• Negotiation made provisions for Palestinian autonomy in Israeli-occupied West Bank and
Gaza; these were never implemented
Egypt’s Sadat visits Israel, 1977
Two-level bargaining
• During the negotiations, each of the leaders involved “played two games at a time- at the
• international table together, and at the domestic table at home” (Stein, p.79)
• Strategies had to be effective simultaneously at both the domestic and international
tables, and benefitted from synergistic linkages
• Domestic crises in Egypt and Israel imposed costs on participants, changed their calculus
from seeking relative gains to avoiding absolute loss
• Borrowing from Putnam’s concept of two-level games, Stein argues that Egyptian,
Israeli, and US decisionmakers were constrained as much by domestic as by international
factors
Win-sets in inter-state negotiations
Egypt’s Strategic outlook
Document Summary
Timeline of events: 1973: arab-israeli war ends in stalemate; egypt fails to retake sinai peninsula by force, 1972-5: convinced that the us would never let israel lose in battle, egyptian pres. Sadat begins exploring the possibility of switching superpower patrons from ussr to usa: 1977: sadat becomes first arab leader to visit israel; proposes land-for-peace deal in address to israeli knesset (parliament, 1978: us pres. Carter hosts sadat and israeli pm begin for negotiations at camp david, Israeli, and us decisionmakers were constrained as much by domestic as by international factors. Ussr in the framework of a dialogue with us and israel and unilaterally moved to advance a peace deal. Israel relied on us military and economic assistance, and would need the us to broker any peace deal. Peace deal on the white house lawn, march 26, 1979. Israeli airstrikes on isis in sinai (2016-18); egypt closes hamas" smuggling tunnels into.
