ECON 2GG3 Lecture 12: Lecture 12
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Consider the following actual data for sales during the 12 months of 2012.
(a) Fill in the third column of 3-month moving average.
(b) Calculate the forecast value of sales in January of 2013.
(c) Calculate the forecast value of sales in February 2013 if January sales turn out to be 70,937.
(d) Use the data in question 6 to calculate 5-month weighted moving average to obtain the forecast value of sales in January 2013 if the last 5 months of 2012 are weighted by 0.12, 0.17, 0.15, 0.21, 0.19, respectively
Month | Actual Sales | Three-Month Moving Average | MAD1 | MAD2 |
January | 71,290 | |||
February | 70,912 | |||
March | 62,540 | |||
April | 64,258 | |||
May | 68,912 | |||
June | 70,512 | |||
July | 72,436 | |||
August | 70,887 | |||
September | 68,500 | |||
October | 64,312 | |||
November | 61,850 | |||
December | 66,275 |
Part 2. Suppose that the consumers buy5 apples and 3 oranges every year(basket of goods), and the price of each one was showed as the following: (35 Marks)
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
|
Apple |
$2 |
$3 |
$4 |
Orange |
$3 |
$4 |
$5 |
If we considered2012 is the base year, then:
What is the value of the Consumer price index (CPI) in 2012, 2013, and 2014?
What is the value of Inflation in, 2013, and 2014?
In your opinion, how inflation affects economic activities.