POLSCI 1G06 Lecture 14: Political Science L14 Nucproliferation Feb25
21 Sep 2016
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We cannot build decisions based on one case (cold war) In many respect, this is a critical case for proponents of nuclear deterrence. This was a case where it was least likely for nuclear deterrence theory to hold: History of conflict between the two countries 1947-58, 1971, 1984 etc. Despite all the factors weighing against deterrence (and the fact that the conflict went right to the brink) in the end a full scale war was avoided. Proliferation: when a new state gains the capabilities of having nuclear weapons. Vertical proliferation: when a state that already has nukes builds new ones. Horizontal: when a new state builds new weapons. The possession of nuclear weapons means that the costs of aggression will always outweigh any benefits that aggression could bring. Consequently if more states are armed with nuclear power, all states would have to be more cautious in their foreign policy.
