PSYB10H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: United States Presidential Election, 2016, Social Desirability Bias, Approximation Error
Lecture 10: Applications of Social Psychology
Applications of Social Psychology
• Elections
• Nudges
• Spending and saving
• Education
ELECTIONS
2016 US Presidential Election
• Polling
• Turnout
o when pollsters produce poll they need to predict how ppl will vote
▪ predict behaviour
• Demographics
• Intergroup conflict
National Popular Vote
• Polls: Clinton +3.2%
• Actual: Clinton +1.7%
• Absolute error: 1.5
• can win the popular vote but doesn't mean shit if you don't win the electoral votes
• right in the ballpark of what should be expected given the chances
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find more resources at oneclass.com
Sources of Polling Error
• Random (sampling) error
o Quantifiable
▪ By using polls
o Cancels out across polls
• Systematic error
o Harder to quantify
o Does’t eessarily ael out
Source of Systematic Error
• Nonresponse bias
o pollster only calls landlines (traditionally)
▪ you need to pick up phone to be included
▪ if these ppl who don't pick up are systematically diff from those who do pick up,
that can affect results (undercounting these ppl)
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
• Social desirability bias
o willing to do the poll but not honest about their opinions
▪ polls that use live interviewers were a little more biased
• Likely voter models
o it's easier to determine what ppl's opinions are instead of future voting patterns
Turnout
Demographics
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Applications of social psychology: elections, nudges, education. 2016 us presidential election: polling, turnout, when pollsters produce poll they need to predict how ppl will vote, predict behaviour, demographics. Sources of polling error: random (sampling) error, quantifiable, by using polls, cancels out across polls. Systematic error: harder to quantify, does(cid:374)"t (cid:374)e(cid:272)essarily (cid:272)a(cid:374)(cid:272)el out. Social desirability bias: willing to do the poll but not honest about their opinions, polls that use live interviewers were a little more biased. Likely voter models it"s easier to determine what ppl"s opinions are instead of future voting patterns. Intergroup conflict hi baby <33333: realistic group conflict theory, competition for scarce resources, most ethnocentrism (ingroup preference) from groups with most to lose, ppl are reacting to changes in society that affects them or ppl that they know. Change in mortality rate, age 45-54: most demographic groups saw a decline in their mortality rate over the past 15 years, whites with little education saw an increase.
