PSY435H1 Lecture 8: Lecture 8.docx
Document Summary
Participation perspective scale/non linearity/motivations local multiplicity uncertainty vs. local expertise. You cannot know everything b/c there are so many factors; there is irreducible uncertainty. We cannot do a perfect analysis of s system. Reductionist thinking hits a wall, especially when you think of non linearity. Prediction and control is doomed; can try to improve prediction, but it is never going to be perfect and it is never going to be close. Create a set of equations that represents the variables acting on weather patterns (wind, humidity, temp, moon, currents, etc) Get a way of predicting what the weather will do. There will be error, but it is a linear approximation. E. g. get y=2x+5 put same input in, always get the same output. If just a tiny decimal off, model gives completely different story after a few predictions. With such a small error, would expect missing these few decimals shouldn"t matter.
