RSM341H1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Probability Axioms, Probability Measure, Sample Space
Document Summary
January 24, 2020: model-based decision making = choosing an available option using models, each model is a collection of conceivable realities, model is useful when it produces predictions. Sets: is a collection of its members, is defined entirely by what its members are, two sets are equal if the have exactly the same members, not to be confused with sequence. Probability: sample space : completely exhaustive set of mutually exclusive possible outcomes. Ordered list of terms enclosed by a pair of parentheses. Order and repetition matter for sequences: empty set/null set: set with no elements, probability axioms: Model of choice: probability of each event e is found by adding up the probabilities of outcomes in e, set of all menus = 2d, choice rule is a function. Require that for every menu m for every menu m: something must be chosen from each menu.
