TRN125Y1 Lecture Notes - Asthma, Herd Immunity, Contact Tracing
2 May 2013
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Document Summary
Endemic steady state and critical vaccination coverage. Tool for the analysis of policy options: to come up with good policy options, use mathematical modelling constantly developed. Increase vaccination rate, does that lead to good results. Reasons why mathematical modelling became so popular: complexity of infectious disease dynamics. Complexity not simple to understand and they are diff for diff diseases. Transmission of infectious diseases involves contact between individual and someone else, interaction between age, environmental, agents, ease of transmission --> a system that is pretty complex and has many diff dimensions/dynamics. Virulence can change, environment can change, contact can change and it is this complexity that makes modelling so good to use. Using model doesn"t mean you have to address that question all over again can just change that one factor (ex: population became 10 million) and put that into model and it will spit out new answer. To simplify complexity of diseases: not possible to decide by pure reasoning.
