ECON 101 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Liquidity Trap, Loanable Funds, Tax Cut

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26 May 2018

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Economics 101

Lori Leachman

Part 7 • Lecture

• Loanable funds market

o Changes Supply

▪ Open market operations (OMO)

• OMO purchase increases S

▪ Capital inflow/outflow

• Capital inflow increases S

o Changes Demand

▪ Business investment

• Increase in investment increases D

▪ Fiscal deficits

• Increase in deficit increases D

• r* is set by Supply and Demand of loanable funds market, which then sets i* through fisher equation (i = r

+ p) and determines quantity invested I, which determines TS and AD because TS = C + I + G + (Xn = 0)...

AD?

• Monetary policy doesn’t always work due to things out of Fed’s control & the liquidity trap

o Keynesian argument against monetary policy - people may hold money - reasons people invest

and borrow are different - can lead to liquidity trap

• Fiscal Policy changes MEI with corp tax cuts

• Keynesian Model:

o Aggregate Supply (AS) is 45 degrees thru origin

▪ Dollar of spent is dollar of income to someone - income approach to GDP

▪ Supply will always accommodate demand infinitely - only AD matters

• Keynesian is demand oriented

• Written during g. depression

o TS = C + I + G + (Xn = 0)

o C = a + b (Y - t)

o a = autonomous consumption

▪ Money one spends when income = 0, affected by social safety net, wealth, savings of

economy, pension system, educational system

o b = marginal propensity to consume = MPC

▪ Sets the SLOPE of the y = mx + b equation above...

▪ Fraction of each extra dollar earned that is spent

▪ 0 <= b <= 1

▪ MPC + MPS = 1

▪ MPS = marginal propensity to save

▪ MPC can be above 1 (like kids spending parents money... autonomous consumption)

o Y is income - t is taxes (lump sum tax assumed)

▪ So Y - t is disposable income

o Multiplier effects (fiscal policy)

▪ Simple Multiplier (Ms) = 1 / (1 - b)

• Impacts of changes in G and I (expectations or corp tax)

• Takes much bigger change in I, because I is smaller portion spending

▪ Tax Multiplier (Mt) = - MPC / MPS

• Impacts of changes in income tax

▪ Tax multiplier is always negative and one less than the simple multiplier

• Mt = - (Ms - 1)

o Yt = Target income; income consistent w/ full employment & price stability (classical range of

AS and on PPC)

▪ If Y* = Yt all is perfect

▪ If Yt > Y, actual is lower than should

• In a trough/recession

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Document Summary

Part 7 lecture: loanable funds market, changes supply, open market operations (omo, omo purchase increases s, capital inflow/outflow, capital inflow increases s, changes demand, business investment. Increase in investment increases d: fiscal deficits. Increase in deficit increases d r* is set by supply and demand of loanable funds market, which then sets i* through fisher equation (i = r. + p) and determines quantity invested i, which determines ts and ad because ts = c + i + g + (xn = 0) Impacts of changes in g and i (expectations or corp tax: takes much bigger change in i, because i is smaller portion spending, tax multiplier (mt) = - mpc / mps. If yt > y, actual is lower than should. If yt < y, actual is higher than should. Implications for most to least expansionary policies - order rank. Increased gov spending alone: tax cut alone.

Related Questions

1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nationâs spending amount which increases the economyâs deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. Thatâs what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that âyou canât be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneouslyâat least I canât see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.â He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesnât agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesnât change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates arenât declining meaning investment wouldnât continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states âMost spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.â He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soroâs point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states âThe other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.â He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: âBut when you have a collapse of credit thereâs only one source of credit that is still credible, and thatâs the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.â I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugmanâs IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugmanâs points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

Niall Ferguson believed that expansionary fiscal policy could produce a crowding-out effect. Ferguson believed that if the government tried to increase demand during the crisis it would cause the real interest rate to increase. He theorized that if the government tried to boost the economy through deficit spending it would cause the interest rate to rise, which in turn would crowd-out investors and consumers. The interest in the deficit would lead to an increase in the demand for loanable funds, which would lead to an increase in interest rates. Ferguson stated "The lesson of economic growth is very clear. Economic growth does not come from state-led infrastructure investment. It comes from technological innovation, and gains in productivity, and these things come from private sector, not from the state."

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Paul Krugman disagreed with Ferguson and believed that the government deficit could not produce a crowding out effect. Krugman's liquidity trap: Private demand is so low that even if the short-term interest rate is 0% spending is less that what is needed for full employment. Normal monetary policy of the central bank purchasing short-term debts with new money is ineffective. Krugman argues that a major issue during the crisis was people wanting to save money combined with the private sector being far less likely to invest. He referred to this a "savings glut". It was argued that the federal reserve was playing the part that the private banking system through buying private securities and the federal government was playing the roll that business wasn't by engaging in investment. Due to the liquidity trap excess demand for savings is not going to drive interest rates up. Krugman stated " Government borrowing gives some of those excess saving a place to go and in the process expands overall demand, and hence GDP. It does not crowd out private spending, at least not until the excess supply of savings has been sopped up, which is the same thing as saying not until the economy has escaped from the liquidity trap."

I agree with Soros view that the publics view of the financial markets has been forever changed. " Financial markets namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. But the finical system collapsed of its own weight." I feel like this is a situation in which it takes a very long time to build trust, but that trust can be lost instantly. The crash has challenged the felling of security that people once felt in the banking system. The idea of the market regulating itself is fading, it wasn't until the government stepped that people felt reassured in the banking system. I believe this will lead to a period of government regulation that wouldn't have arose without this change in view. I disagree with robin Wells' view that the US needs to shift towards protectionism. I believe that free trade is good for everyone as long as there is a comparative advantage. If the US moves toward protections as a result of the deficit it will slow economic growth and place us at a disadvantage compared to countries with free trade. Not to mention consumers in the US will be placed with the burden of higher prices on goods.

Please make comments to the discussion I provided above(at least 300 words). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

51.The Fed is conducting expansionary monetary policy if it:

A increases the discount rate, buys bonds, and sets a lower target for the federal funds rate.

B decreases the discount rate and sells bonds.

C sets a lower target for the federal funds rate and buys bonds in the open market.

D increases reserve requirements and buys bonds in the open market.

E buys bonds in the open market and raises the discount rate.

52.If banks become concerned about future conditions and decide to hold larger excess reserves, which of the following is a likely result?

A A rise in interest rates

B An increase in bond prices

C An increase in aggregate demand

D An increase in the money supply

E Both C and D

53.The Fed is under no obligation to coordinate its actions with fiscal policy. And in fact, the Fed may take actions specifically designed to counteract some piece of fiscal policy. An example of fiscal and monetary policies with opposite effects is:

A an increase in taxes and increased sales of bonds by the Fed.

B a decrease in government spending and an increase in the discount rate.

C a decrease in taxes and a decrease in the target for the federal funds rate.

D an increase in government spending and an increase in reserve requirements.

E a decrease in taxes and increased purchases of bonds by the Fed.

54.In the fictitious nation of Zagora, a worker can produce either 5 books or 10 televisions in an hour. In neighboring Plovdiv, a worker can produce either 3 books or 5 televisions in an hour. Which statement about this situation is true?

A Zagora has comparative advantage in the production of books.

B Zagora has comparative advantage in the production of televisions.

C Workers in Plovdiv canât possibly compete against the super-productive workers in Zagora.

D Workers in Zagora canât be expected to compete against the low-wage workers in Plovdiv.

E None of the above

55.Given the U.S. has a current account deficit, a large increase in the demand for U.S. computer programs among Japanese residents will have all the following effects except:

A an increase in the exchange rate, expressed in yen per dollar.

B an increase in the U.S. capital account surplus.

C an increase in investment in Japan.

D an decrease in the U.S. trade deficit.

E It may have all the above effects.

56.Fiscal policy affects exchange rates because:

A as government spending increases, the government must buy more and more goods and services from foreign countries.

B as government debt increases, interest rates rise, and the value of the currency rises.

C as government debt increases, interest rates rise, and the value of the currency falls.

D as the money supply increases, interest rates fall, and the value of the currency rises.

E as the money supply increases, interest rates fall, and the value of the currency falls.

57.There are many kinds of trade restrictions, and trade restrictions are put into place for many reasons. Which of the following is not a reason to use trade restrictions?

A To save natural habitats from over-use

B To protect the jobs of workers in certain industries

C To make a political statement regarding the labor policies of another nation

D To compensate for higher taxes placed on domestic producers

E To create a lower prices for domestic consumers

58.If the value of the U.S. dollar in foreign exchange markets rises:

A U.S. exports will become relatively less expensive.

B capital inflows into the United States will increase.

C people in the U.S. will purchase fewer imports.

D U.S. exports will likely decrease.

E All of the above

59.Saying that leakages equal injections give the equation:

A T + S + X = G + I + M

B Y = C + S + T

C Y = C + I + G + X - M

D T + S + M = C + G + I + X

E T + S + M = G + I + X

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ECON 101 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Liquidity Trap, Loanable Funds, Tax Cut

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