CPO-2002 Lecture 35: Lecture 35
Document Summary
Tipping model suggests that things like economic recessions may cause private preferences and revolutionary thresholds to move against the regime without actually producing a revolution. Structural factors (economic recession) are not sufficient in and of themselves to produce revolutio(cid:374)s, although they (cid:373)ay (cid:373)ake revolutio(cid:374)s (cid:373)ore likely (cid:271)y redu(cid:272)i(cid:374)g i(cid:374)dividuals" revolutionary thresholds. Prefere(cid:374)(cid:272)e falsifi(cid:272)atio(cid:374) (cid:373)ea(cid:374)s that a so(cid:272)iety"s distri(cid:271)utio(cid:374) of revolutio(cid:374)ary thresholds is never known to the individuals in that society. Thus, a society can come to the brink of a revolution without anyone ever knowing it. Our inability to observe private preferences and revolutionary thresholds conceals potential revolutionary cascades and makes revolutions impossible to predict. Structural changes in 80s lowered the revolutionary thresholds of east europeans. Successful introduction of pro-democracy reforms in one country further reduced revolutionary thresholds and encouraged pro-democracy protests elsewhere. Led to a revolutionary cascade across countries rather than across individuals. Huge pent-up pool of opposition to communist rule that was bound to break out eventually.
