GOV 1290 Lecture Notes - Lecture 22: Embezzlement, Mikhail Gorbachev, United Russia
26 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Russia&descended&into&authoritarianism&in&1990's
•
1990:¬&obvious&Russia&would&follow&path&of&authoritarianism
•
Per&capita&GDP&in&1990&was&double&Poland's
○
73%&urban
○
Literacy&rates&above&98%
○
Didn't&have&liberal& culture&or&democratic&history
○
Russia&more&developed&than&Poland
•
Balance&of&power&was&more&favorable&to&democracy&in&Poland&than&Russia
○
Russia&had&week&civil&society&and&more&powerful&state
○
Russia&big&and&powerful&country&that&was&less&susceptible&to&external&
influences&and¬&allowed&to&enter&EU
○
Why&does&Poland&democratize&and&Russia¬?
•
96%&of&Poles&are&catholic,&and&the&Church&was&very&influential&-- even&
communist&forces&didn't&try&to&wipe&it&out,&but&had&to&stay&out&of&politics
○
Poland&was&never&a&truly&totalitarian&state,&always°ree&of&societal&
pluralism,&plus&had&history&of&rising&up&against&the®ime
○
1980:&workers&went&on&strike,&demanding&the&right&to&form&
independent&unions
§
Triggered&more&strikes
§
Started&the&solidarity&movement
§
8-10&million&members&of&solidarity&after&only&a&year
§
1985:&Russia&left&everyone&on&their&own&and&cut&back&on&aid&in&
the&middle&of&an&economic&crisis,&so&Poles&looked&west&for&aid,&
which&created&incentives&for&govt&to&let&up&oppression
□
1989&Solidarity&legalized&and&round&table&talks&started&and&
produced&a&pact,&both&sides&agreed&to&elected&president&-- the&
communist&leader&-- along&with&Newly&elected&senate
□
Opposition&defeats&communists&(72%&of&vote)
□
Communists&dissolve&and&form&new&democratic&lefts□
Weak&initial& democratic&institutions&lead&to&party&
fragmentation&and&&allow&the&former&communist&party&(now&
rebranded)&to&take&over&in&the&next&election
□
Economic&boom
®
Unlike&russia,&real&dispersion&of&power&and&civil&society&
remains&strong,&and&state-society&balance&shifts&
favorably
®
Polish&democracy&takes&hold□
After&the&govt&declared&Marshal&law,&the&Soviet's&backed&the&Polish&
govt
§
So&Poland&had&to&play&by&democratic&rules,&even&when&the&
communists&were&in&charge
□
EU&membership&gained&in&2004
§
Intellectuals,&workers,&Catholics&at&base&of&solidarity&movement
○
Poland
•
Rather&than&emerging&out&of&a&massive&protest&movement,&Russia's&
transition&began&with&the&collapse&of&the&Soviet&Union
○
Boris&Yeltsen,&who&quit&party&and&transitioned&into&being&a&dissident,&was&
elected&president&of&Russia&while&it&was&still&part&of&the&soviet&union
○
1991&coupe&against&Gorbachev,&Yeltsen&stands&up&on&a&tank&during&coupe&
and&gives&speech
○
When&soviet&union&dissolved,&Yeltsen&by&default&becomes&country's&first&
president&-- serves&until&1999
○
Russia&under&Yeltsen,&was&viewed&as&new&democracy&-- elected&President&
(Yeltsen),&plus&initial&competition&and&fairly&free&press
○
State&society&balance&was&different
§
Russia&lacked&anything&like&solidarity&movement,&lacked&strong&civil&
society&that&had&practice&protesting
§
Conditions&for&democracy&in&Russia¬&as&favorable&as&Poland
○
Weak&parties
§
Independent&trade&unions&weak
§
Organizational&wasteland&during&1991
○
Same&time&civil&society&was&weak,&state&was&very&powerful
○
Massive&bureacracy&and&coercive&apparatus&-- largest&army&in&the&
world&and&extrodinary&police&state&(KGB's&surveilance&apparatuses&
that&were&passed&on&from&KGB&to&new&security&service)
§
Soviet&police&state&was&reformed&but&never&dismantled
§
Russia&inherited&soviet&state
○
Russia&never&faced&sweeping&economic&reforms
§
Transition&to&market&economy&was&less&thorough
§
Russia's&privatization&did¬&bring&serious&dispersion&of&resources&--
chaotic&and&corrupt
§
Many&were&state&managers&--used&to&run&factories□
2/3&of&privatized&companies&were&acquired&by&managers&that&
ran&them&under&communism
□
Few&individuals&able&to&take&huge&chunks&of&the&Russian&economy
§
Finance□
Mining□
Oil□
Media□
Some&people&with&close&ties&to&the&government&ended&up&with&
billions&of&dollars&worth&of&assets
§
New&billions&became&the&Oligarchs
§
Much&of&state's&economic&power&remained&intact
○
Economic&power&remained&concentrated&in&small&number&of&hands
§
Resources¬&dispersed&-- stated&close&to&home&(state)□
Those&few&hands&had&strong&ties&to&state
§
Two&problems&with&emergence&of&oligarchs
○
Govt&able&to&disrupt&people's&life
§
People&depended&on&state&for&jobs,&loans,&heating,&etc.&also,&
companies&depended&on&the&state&
§
Makes&it&risky&for&people&to&oppose&the&government□
Govt&officials&had&discretion&in&using&allocation&o&loans,&jobs,&
licenses,&permits,&heating&and&electricity& to&reward&those&that&are&
political&loyal&and&punish&opponents
§
1/4&of&Russia's&total&economic&output□
Monopoly&□
So&state&run&entity
®
Technically&a&private&company,&but&the&state&owns&the&
majority&stock
□
Since&such&a&vital&company,&it&is&a&powerful&source&of&leverage&
for&the&govt
□
Results&in&weak&civil&society
◊
Makes&it&hard&for&business&people&to&challenge&the&govt,&
even&though&it's&totally&legal,&opposition&leaders&find&
that&few&businesses&are&willing&to&finance&and&few&
ordinary&Russian's&willing&to&support
®
Govt&entity&has&power&to&turn&off&heat&or&power,&so&peope&
think&twice&about&criticizing&the&govt
□
State&run&oil&and&gas&company&GasProm
§
Russian&state&retained&administrative&power&through&state&ownership&of&
industries&and®ulation&of&economy
○
Less&vulnerable&to&external&democratizing&pressure&than&Africa&or&LA
§
Democratization&has&to&occur&from&within,&won't&come&from&EU&or&
elsewheres
§
Russia&as&nuclear&power
○
Unbelievable&amount&of&crises
®
GDP&declined&by&40%&between&1990&and&1998
®
Worse&than&germany&during&great&depression&which&
gave&rise&to&Hitler
®
Strong&political&party&
}
Lacked&organized&state&(even&though&
strong,&it&wasn't&operational)
}
He&lacked&two&tools&to&exercise& power
◊
Yeltsen&loses&popularity
®
Because&Yeltsen&govt&was&unusually&weak□
Never&had&great&conditions,&so&why&did&it&look&democratic&during&
1990's?
§
Agencies&and&offices&were&in&state&of&chaos□
People&didn't&know&when&Soviet&Union&became&Russia&if&they&
still&had&jobs,&what&their&jobs&were,&and&during&economic&
collapse&state&bureaucrats&weren't&getting&paid,&which&led&to&
chaos&and&corruption
□
Went&from&being&the&biggest&state&in&the&history&of&the&world&(Soviet&
Union)&to&collapsing
§
But&bankrupt&and&falling&apart□
Regularly&disobeyed&by&other&officials
®
High&state&officials&including&Yeltsen&gave&orders,&they&didn't&
know&if&they&would&comply&with&them
□
Yeltsen&powerful&in&theory,¬&in&practice□
1990's:&Russian&state&was&big
§
Competition,&free&press,&opposition,&competitive&
elections
®
Looks&like&democratic&pluralism□
But&that&freedom&and&pluralism&exists¬&by&design,&but&by&
default
□
Free&press&because&govt&lacks&resources&to&stop&it&and&monitor&
and&punish&media
□
Elections&because&govt&lacks&capacity&to&organize&fraud□
Problem&with&pluralism&by&default,&is&that&whenever&the&govt&
gets&it&shit&together,&it&disappears&(putin)
□
Results'in'pluralism'by'default,'as'described'by'Lucan'Way
§
Vibrant&independent&media□
Old&communist&party&-- opposed&Yeltsen
®
Pro-western&liberal&party&that&sought&to&extend&
Yeltsen's&reforms
®
Yeltsen&is&in&the&middle
®
Several&important&opposition&parties□
Because'Yeltsen'did'not'have'a'party,'he'lost'control'of'
the'legislature'(DOOMA)
®
Dooma'began'to'threaten'to'impeach'Yeltsen'two'
years'into'his'term
®
Even&in&hayday&of&pluralism&by&default,&Russia&was¬&
democratic
□
Bombed&it&into&submission&and&killed&hundreds&of&
people
◊
Dissolved&DOOMA&unconstitutionally
®
When&faced&with&opposition,&he&called&the&troops□
Russia&under&Yeltsen&marked&by&pluralism&by&default
§
Conditions&for&democracy
○
US:&Yeltsen's&reelection&seen&as&victory&of&democracy
§
Election¬&democratic
§
4&months&before&vote,&Yeltsen&had&6%&approval&rating
§
Govt&played&dirty&and&tilted&playing&field
§
10's&of&millions&of&dollars&redirected&from&state&resources&towards&
reelection& campaign
§
Outspent&him&by&150:1
§
Head&of&Russia's&largest&private&TV&station&was&simultaneously&
Yeltsen's&director&of&media&operations
□
Adding&names&of&nonexisting&people&to&voter&rolls&(dead&
souls)
®
Massive&fraud&in&election&itself□
All&media&(state&and&private)&was&in&Yeltsen's&camp&(openly&pro-
Yeltsen)
§
US&didn't&address&fraud&(Clinton)&instead&applauded&democratic&
victory
§
1996:&Yeltsen&runs&for&reelection&against&old&Communist
○
Equally&unsuccessful
§
December&1999:&Resigns&and&hands&over&presidency&to&Vladmir&
Putin
§
Scheduled&elections&for&March&2000
§
1999:&string&of&terrorist&bombings&across&Russia&that&kills&hundreds&
of&people&-- Putin's&tough&response&helped&established&image&of&
tough&leader&and&gained&popularity
§
Main&rival&in&2000&election&was&same&communist&leader
§
Widespread&fraud&and&threats&if&people&didn't&vote&for&Putin
§
Villages&told&they&would¬&get&farming&supplies&if&they&didn't&back&
Putin
§
He&wins&easily
§
Second&Term
○
Consolidates&&authoritarian&rule
§
Strengthened&and&harden&a&fragile&autocracy
§
2000:&Putin&more&energetic,&ambitious,&and&skilled&than&Yeltsen
§
Knew&how&the&security&apparatuses&worked&and&how&to&use&
them
□
He&came&from&KGB
§
Early&1990's&troubles&were&gone□
2000's&state&now&basically&worked□
Russian&state&starting&to&function&again
§
Which&helped&him&keep&supporters&in&line&and&hold&back&
DOOMA
□
Putin&creates&strong&ruling&party&-- United&Russia
§
Russia&economy&grows&10%&in&2000□
Made&Putin&more&powerful
®
And&gave&him&much&more&resources&and&wealth
®
Averaged&7%&growth&between&2000&and&2007□
Price&of&oil&and&gas&skyrockets□
Massive&exporter&so&huge&influx&of&resources□
Economy&recovers
§
Putin
○
Yeltsen&ruled&over&a&bankrupt&failing&state,&Putin&presided&over&state&
overflowing&with&resources
§
Yeltsen&vs.&Putin
○
Puts&an&end&to&pluralism&by&default
§
Takes&advantage&of&the&economic&power&of&the&Russian&state,&to&do&
away&with&pluralism,&and&to&do&away&with&the&opposition&that&
existed&in&the&1990's
§
2001:&govt&forces&media&owner&into&exile&with&fraud&charges,&
and&put&company&in&hands&of&ally
□
Use&gas&funds&to&take&over&another&tv&station□
Used&libel&suits&against&journalists&and&newspapers□
Journalists&harassed,&threatened,&even&killed&(28&since&Putin&
elected)
□
NO&MORE&INDEPENDENT&MEDIA□
Went&after&media
§
Since&they&finance&opposition&parties&and&media&outlets□
Summoned&21&of&Russia's&leading&oligarchs&and&told&them&you&
are&free&to&make&as&much&money&if&you&stay&out&of&politics,&no&
one&can&finance&opposition
□
Finances&opposition&parties&and&candidate
®
Owner&of&Ukos&oil&company&-- Russia's&richest&man&--
considered&himself&untouchable&who&was&liberal& and&didn't&
like&Putin
□
2003:&Putin&has&him&arrested&for&tax&evasion,&embezzlement&
and&fraud&-- spends&10&years&in&prison
□
Putin's&lesson&was&clear&-- oligarchs&stayed&away&from&politics□
People&were&scared&to&fund&the&opposition&and&without&
access&to&the&media&and&finances,&opposition&groups&withered&
and&died
□
Opposition&parties&free&to&organize&and&compete&against&
Putin,&but&most&of&them&had&reduced&to&tiny&parties&that&were&
insignificant
□
2008:&Putin's&hand&picked&successor&where&most&serious&
candidates&were&excluded&on&technical&grounds
□
2018:&Putin&wins&77%&of&election□
Putin&sees&oligarchs&as&potential&threat
§
For&most&of&presidency,&oil&prices&high&and&economy&doing&
well
□
Much&better&than&during&Yeltsen□
Putin&wins&by&65&points&because&opposition&is&shut&out&of&
media&and&has&no&money
□
Putin&wins&in&part&due&to&popularity
§
What&does&Putin&do?
○
Russia•
3/29/18'PAPER'NOTES
Wednesday,& April&18,&2018
10:35&PM
Russia&descended&into&authoritarianism&in&1990's•
1990:¬&obvious&Russia&would&follow&path&of&authoritarianism•
Per&capita&GDP&in&1990&was&double&Poland's
○
73%&urban
○
Literacy&rates&above&98%
○
Didn't&have&liberal& culture&or&democratic&history
○
Russia&more&developed&than&Poland•
Balance&of&power&was&more&favorable&to&democracy&in&Poland&than&Russia
○
Russia&had&week&civil&society&and&more&powerful&state
○
Russia&big&and&powerful&country&that&was&less&susceptible&to&external&
influences&and¬&allowed&to&enter&EU
○
Why&does&Poland&democratize&and&Russia¬?•
96%&of&Poles&are&catholic,&and&the&Church&was&very&influential&-- even&
communist&forces&didn't&try&to&wipe&it&out,&but&had&to&stay&out&of&politics
○
Poland&was&never&a&truly&totalitarian&state,&always°ree&of&societal&
pluralism,&plus&had&history&of&rising&up&against&the®ime
○
1980:&workers&went&on&strike,&demanding&the&right&to&form&
independent&unions
§
Triggered&more&strikes
§
Started&the&solidarity&movement
§
8-10&million&members&of&solidarity&after&only&a&year
§
1985:&Russia&left&everyone&on&their&own&and&cut&back&on&aid&in&
the&middle&of&an&economic&crisis,&so&Poles&looked&west&for&aid,&
which&created&incentives&for&govt&to&let&up&oppression
□
1989&Solidarity&legalized&and&round&table&talks&started&and&
produced&a&pact,&both&sides&agreed&to&elected&president&-- the&
communist&leader&-- along&with&Newly&elected&senate
□
Opposition&defeats&communists&(72%&of&vote)
□
Communists&dissolve&and&form&new&democratic&lefts
□
Weak&initial& democratic&institutions&lead&to&party&
fragmentation&and&&allow&the&former&communist&party&(now&
rebranded)&to&take&over&in&the&next&election
□
Economic&boom
®
Unlike&russia,&real&dispersion&of&power&and&civil&society&
remains&strong,&and&state-society&balance&shifts&
favorably
®
Polish&democracy&takes&hold
□
After&the&govt&declared&Marshal&law,&the&Soviet's&backed&the&Polish&
govt
§
So&Poland&had&to&play&by&democratic&rules,&even&when&the&
communists&were&in&charge
□
EU&membership&gained&in&2004
§
Intellectuals,&workers,&Catholics&at&base&of&solidarity&movement
○
Poland•
Rather&than&emerging&out&of&a&massive&protest&movement,&Russia's&
transition&began&with&the&collapse&of&the&Soviet&Union
○
Boris&Yeltsen,&who&quit&party&and&transitioned&into&being&a&dissident,&was&
elected&president&of&Russia&while&it&was&still&part&of&the&soviet&union
○
1991&coupe&against&Gorbachev,&Yeltsen&stands&up&on&a&tank&during&coupe&
and&gives&speech
○
When&soviet&union&dissolved,&Yeltsen&by&default&becomes&country's&first&
president&-- serves&until&1999
○
Russia&under&Yeltsen,&was&viewed&as&new&democracy&-- elected&President&
(Yeltsen),&plus&initial&competition&and&fairly&free&press
○
State&society&balance&was&different
§
Russia&lacked&anything&like&solidarity&movement,&lacked&strong&civil&
society&that&had&practice&protesting
§
Conditions&for&democracy&in&Russia¬&as&favorable&as&Poland
○
Weak&parties
§
Independent&trade&unions&weak
§
Organizational&wasteland&during&1991
○
Same&time&civil&society&was&weak,&state&was&very&powerful
○
Massive&bureacracy&and&coercive&apparatus&-- largest&army&in&the&
world&and&extrodinary&police&state&(KGB's&surveilance&apparatuses&
that&were&passed&on&from&KGB&to&new&security&service)
§
Soviet&police&state&was&reformed&but&never&dismantled
§
Russia&inherited&soviet&state
○
Russia&never&faced&sweeping&economic&reforms
§
Transition&to&market&economy&was&less&thorough
§
Russia's&privatization&did¬&bring&serious&dispersion&of&resources&--
chaotic&and&corrupt
§
Many&were&state&managers&--used&to&run&factories□
2/3&of&privatized&companies&were&acquired&by&managers&that&
ran&them&under&communism
□
Few&individuals&able&to&take&huge&chunks&of&the&Russian&economy
§
Finance□
Mining□
Oil□
Media□
Some&people&with&close&ties&to&the&government&ended&up&with&
billions&of&dollars&worth&of&assets
§
New&billions&became&the&Oligarchs
§
Much&of&state's&economic&power&remained&intact
○
Economic&power&remained&concentrated&in&small&number&of&hands
§
Resources¬&dispersed&-- stated&close&to&home&(state)□
Those&few&hands&had&strong&ties&to&state
§
Two&problems&with&emergence&of&oligarchs
○
Govt&able&to&disrupt&people's&life
§
People&depended&on&state&for&jobs,&loans,&heating,&etc.&also,&
companies&depended&on&the&state&
§
Makes&it&risky&for&people&to&oppose&the&government□
Govt&officials&had&discretion&in&using&allocation&o&loans,&jobs,&
licenses,&permits,&heating&and&electricity& to&reward&those&that&are&
political&loyal&and&punish&opponents
§
1/4&of&Russia's&total&economic&output□
Monopoly&□
So&state&run&entity
®
Technically&a&private&company,&but&the&state&owns&the&
majority&stock
□
Since&such&a&vital&company,&it&is&a&powerful&source&of&leverage&
for&the&govt
□
Results&in&weak&civil&society
◊
Makes&it&hard&for&business&people&to&challenge&the&govt,&
even&though&it's&totally&legal,&opposition&leaders&find&
that&few&businesses&are&willing&to&finance&and&few&
ordinary&Russian's&willing&to&support
®
Govt&entity&has&power&to&turn&off&heat&or&power,&so&peope&
think&twice&about&criticizing&the&govt
□
State&run&oil&and&gas&company&GasProm
§
Russian&state&retained&administrative&power&through&state&ownership&of&
industries&and®ulation&of&economy
○
Less&vulnerable&to&external&democratizing&pressure&than&Africa&or&LA
§
Democratization&has&to&occur&from&within,&won't&come&from&EU&or&
elsewheres
§
Russia&as&nuclear&power
○
Unbelievable&amount&of&crises
®
GDP&declined&by&40%&between&1990&and&1998
®
Worse&than&germany&during&great&depression&which&
gave&rise&to&Hitler
®
Strong&political&party&
}
Lacked&organized&state&(even&though&
strong,&it&wasn't&operational)
}
He&lacked&two&tools&to&exercise& power
◊
Yeltsen&loses&popularity
®
Because&Yeltsen&govt&was&unusually&weak□
Never&had&great&conditions,&so&why&did&it&look&democratic&during&
1990's?
§
Agencies&and&offices&were&in&state&of&chaos□
People&didn't&know&when&Soviet&Union&became&Russia&if&they&
still&had&jobs,&what&their&jobs&were,&and&during&economic&
collapse&state&bureaucrats&weren't&getting&paid,&which&led&to&
chaos&and&corruption
□
Went&from&being&the&biggest&state&in&the&history&of&the&world&(Soviet&
Union)&to&collapsing
§
But&bankrupt&and&falling&apart□
Regularly&disobeyed&by&other&officials
®
High&state&officials&including&Yeltsen&gave&orders,&they&didn't&
know&if&they&would&comply&with&them
□
Yeltsen&powerful&in&theory,¬&in&practice□
1990's:&Russian&state&was&big
§
Competition,&free&press,&opposition,&competitive&
elections
®
Looks&like&democratic&pluralism□
But&that&freedom&and&pluralism&exists¬&by&design,&but&by&
default
□
Free&press&because&govt&lacks&resources&to&stop&it&and&monitor&
and&punish&media
□
Elections&because&govt&lacks&capacity&to&organize&fraud□
Problem&with&pluralism&by&default,&is&that&whenever&the&govt&
gets&it&shit&together,&it&disappears&(putin)
□
Results'in'pluralism'by'default,'as'described'by'Lucan'Way
§
Vibrant&independent&media□
Old&communist&party&-- opposed&Yeltsen
®
Pro-western&liberal&party&that&sought&to&extend&
Yeltsen's&reforms
®
Yeltsen&is&in&the&middle
®
Several&important&opposition&parties□
Because'Yeltsen'did'not'have'a'party,'he'lost'control'of'
the'legislature'(DOOMA)
®
Dooma'began'to'threaten'to'impeach'Yeltsen'two'
years'into'his'term
®
Even&in&hayday&of&pluralism&by&default,&Russia&was¬&
democratic
□
Bombed&it&into&submission&and&killed&hundreds&of&
people
◊
Dissolved&DOOMA&unconstitutionally
®
When&faced&with&opposition,&he&called&the&troops□
Russia&under&Yeltsen&marked&by&pluralism&by&default
§
Conditions&for&democracy
○
US:&Yeltsen's&reelection&seen&as&victory&of&democracy
§
Election¬&democratic
§
4&months&before&vote,&Yeltsen&had&6%&approval&rating
§
Govt&played&dirty&and&tilted&playing&field
§
10's&of&millions&of&dollars&redirected&from&state&resources&towards&
reelection& campaign
§
Outspent&him&by&150:1
§
Head&of&Russia's&largest&private&TV&station&was&simultaneously&
Yeltsen's&director&of&media&operations
□
Adding&names&of&nonexisting&people&to&voter&rolls&(dead&
souls)
®
Massive&fraud&in&election&itself□
All&media&(state&and&private)&was&in&Yeltsen's&camp&(openly&pro-
Yeltsen)
§
US&didn't&address&fraud&(Clinton)&instead&applauded&democratic&
victory
§
1996:&Yeltsen&runs&for&reelection&against&old&Communist
○
Equally&unsuccessful
§
December&1999:&Resigns&and&hands&over&presidency&to&Vladmir&
Putin
§
Scheduled&elections&for&March&2000
§
1999:&string&of&terrorist&bombings&across&Russia&that&kills&hundreds&
of&people&-- Putin's&tough&response&helped&established&image&of&
tough&leader&and&gained&popularity
§
Main&rival&in&2000&election&was&same&communist&leader
§
Widespread&fraud&and&threats&if&people&didn't&vote&for&Putin
§
Villages&told&they&would¬&get&farming&supplies&if&they&didn't&back&
Putin
§
He&wins&easily
§
Second&Term
○
Consolidates&&authoritarian&rule
§
Strengthened&and&harden&a&fragile&autocracy
§
2000:&Putin&more&energetic,&ambitious,&and&skilled&than&Yeltsen
§
Knew&how&the&security&apparatuses&worked&and&how&to&use&
them
□
He&came&from&KGB
§
Early&1990's&troubles&were&gone□
2000's&state&now&basically&worked□
Russian&state&starting&to&function&again
§
Which&helped&him&keep&supporters&in&line&and&hold&back&
DOOMA
□
Putin&creates&strong&ruling&party&-- United&Russia
§
Russia&economy&grows&10%&in&2000□
Made&Putin&more&powerful
®
And&gave&him&much&more&resources&and&wealth
®
Averaged&7%&growth&between&2000&and&2007□
Price&of&oil&and&gas&skyrockets□
Massive&exporter&so&huge&influx&of&resources□
Economy&recovers
§
Putin
○
Yeltsen&ruled&over&a&bankrupt&failing&state,&Putin&presided&over&state&
overflowing&with&resources
§
Yeltsen&vs.&Putin
○
Puts&an&end&to&pluralism&by&default
§
Takes&advantage&of&the&economic&power&of&the&Russian&state,&to&do&
away&with&pluralism,&and&to&do&away&with&the&opposition&that&
existed&in&the&1990's
§
2001:&govt&forces&media&owner&into&exile&with&fraud&charges,&
and&put&company&in&hands&of&ally
□
Use&gas&funds&to&take&over&another&tv&station□
Used&libel&suits&against&journalists&and&newspapers□
Journalists&harassed,&threatened,&even&killed&(28&since&Putin&
elected)
□
NO&MORE&INDEPENDENT&MEDIA□
Went&after&media
§
Since&they&finance&opposition&parties&and&media&outlets□
Summoned&21&of&Russia's&leading&oligarchs&and&told&them&you&
are&free&to&make&as&much&money&if&you&stay&out&of&politics,&no&
one&can&finance&opposition
□
Finances&opposition&parties&and&candidate
®
Owner&of&Ukos&oil&company&-- Russia's&richest&man&--
considered&himself&untouchable&who&was&liberal& and&didn't&
like&Putin
□
2003:&Putin&has&him&arrested&for&tax&evasion,&embezzlement&
and&fraud&-- spends&10&years&in&prison
□
Putin's&lesson&was&clear&-- oligarchs&stayed&away&from&politics□
People&were&scared&to&fund&the&opposition&and&without&
access&to&the&media&and&finances,&opposition&groups&withered&
and&died
□
Opposition&parties&free&to&organize&and&compete&against&
Putin,&but&most&of&them&had&reduced&to&tiny&parties&that&were&
insignificant
□
2008:&Putin's&hand&picked&successor&where&most&serious&
candidates&were&excluded&on&technical&grounds
□
2018:&Putin&wins&77%&of&election□
Putin&sees&oligarchs&as&potential&threat
§
For&most&of&presidency,&oil&prices&high&and&economy&doing&
well
□
Much&better&than&during&Yeltsen□
Putin&wins&by&65&points&because&opposition&is&shut&out&of&
media&and&has&no&money
□
Putin&wins&in&part&due&to&popularity
§
What&does&Putin&do?
○
Russia
•
3/29/18'PAPER'NOTES
Wednesday,& April&18,&2018 10:35&PM
Russia&descended&into&authoritarianism&in&1990's•
1990:¬&obvious&Russia&would&follow&path&of&authoritarianism•
Per&capita&GDP&in&1990&was&double&Poland's
○
73%&urban
○
Literacy&rates&above&98%
○
Didn't&have&liberal& culture&or&democratic&history
○
Russia&more&developed&than&Poland•
Balance&of&power&was&more&favorable&to&democracy&in&Poland&than&Russia
○
Russia&had&week&civil&society&and&more&powerful&state
○
Russia&big&and&powerful&country&that&was&less&susceptible&to&external&
influences&and¬&allowed&to&enter&EU
○
Why&does&Poland&democratize&and&Russia¬?•
96%&of&Poles&are&catholic,&and&the&Church&was&very&influential&-- even&
communist&forces&didn't&try&to&wipe&it&out,&but&had&to&stay&out&of&politics
○
Poland&was&never&a&truly&totalitarian&state,&always°ree&of&societal&
pluralism,&plus&had&history&of&rising&up&against&the®ime
○
1980:&workers&went&on&strike,&demanding&the&right&to&form&
independent&unions
§
Triggered&more&strikes
§
Started&the&solidarity&movement
§
8-10&million&members&of&solidarity&after&only&a&year
§
1985:&Russia&left&everyone&on&their&own&and&cut&back&on&aid&in&
the&middle&of&an&economic&crisis,&so&Poles&looked&west&for&aid,&
which&created&incentives&for&govt&to&let&up&oppression
□
1989&Solidarity&legalized&and&round&table&talks&started&and&
produced&a&pact,&both&sides&agreed&to&elected&president&-- the&
communist&leader&-- along&with&Newly&elected&senate
□
Opposition&defeats&communists&(72%&of&vote)□
Communists&dissolve&and&form&new&democratic&lefts□
Weak&initial& democratic&institutions&lead&to&party&
fragmentation&and&&allow&the&former&communist&party&(now&
rebranded)&to&take&over&in&the&next&election
□
Economic&boom
®
Unlike&russia,&real&dispersion&of&power&and&civil&society&
remains&strong,&and&state-society&balance&shifts&
favorably
®
Polish&democracy&takes&hold□
After&the&govt&declared&Marshal&law,&the&Soviet's&backed&the&Polish&
govt
§
So&Poland&had&to&play&by&democratic&rules,&even&when&the&
communists&were&in&charge
□
EU&membership&gained&in&2004
§
Intellectuals,&workers,&Catholics&at&base&of&solidarity&movement
○
Poland•
Rather&than&emerging&out&of&a&massive&protest&movement,&Russia's&
transition&began&with&the&collapse&of&the&Soviet&Union
○
Boris&Yeltsen,&who&quit&party&and&transitioned&into&being&a&dissident,&was&
elected&president&of&Russia&while&it&was&still&part&of&the&soviet&union
○
1991&coupe&against&Gorbachev,&Yeltsen&stands&up&on&a&tank&during&coupe&
and&gives&speech
○
When&soviet&union&dissolved,&Yeltsen&by&default&becomes&country's&first&
president&-- serves&until&1999
○
Russia&under&Yeltsen,&was&viewed&as&new&democracy&-- elected&President&
(Yeltsen),&plus&initial&competition&and&fairly&free&press
○
State&society&balance&was&different
§
Russia&lacked&anything&like&solidarity&movement,&lacked&strong&civil&
society&that&had&practice&protesting
§
Conditions&for&democracy&in&Russia¬&as&favorable&as&Poland
○
Weak&parties
§
Independent&trade&unions&weak
§
Organizational&wasteland&during&1991
○
Same&time&civil&society&was&weak,&state&was&very&powerful
○
Massive&bureacracy&and&coercive&apparatus&-- largest&army&in&the&
world&and&extrodinary&police&state&(KGB's&surveilance&apparatuses&
that&were&passed&on&from&KGB&to&new&security&service)
§
Soviet&police&state&was&reformed&but&never&dismantled
§
Russia&inherited&soviet&state
○
Russia&never&faced&sweeping&economic&reforms
§
Transition&to&market&economy&was&less&thorough
§
Russia's&privatization&did¬&bring&serious&dispersion&of&resources&--
chaotic&and&corrupt
§
Many&were&state&managers&--used&to&run&factories
□
2/3&of&privatized&companies&were&acquired&by&managers&that&
ran&them&under&communism
□
Few&individuals&able&to&take&huge&chunks&of&the&Russian&economy
§
Finance
□
Mining
□
Oil
□
Media
□
Some&people&with&close&ties&to&the&government&ended&up&with&
billions&of&dollars&worth&of&assets
§
New&billions&became&the&Oligarchs
§
Much&of&state's&economic&power&remained&intact
○
Economic&power&remained&concentrated&in&small&number&of&hands
§
Resources¬&dispersed&-- stated&close&to&home&(state)
□
Those&few&hands&had&strong&ties&to&state
§
Two&problems&with&emergence&of&oligarchs
○
Govt&able&to&disrupt&people's&life
§
People&depended&on&state&for&jobs,&loans,&heating,&etc.&also,&
companies&depended&on&the&state&
§
Makes&it&risky&for&people&to&oppose&the&government
□
Govt&officials&had&discretion&in&using&allocation&o&loans,&jobs,&
licenses,&permits,&heating&and&electricity& to&reward&those&that&are&
political&loyal&and&punish&opponents
§
1/4&of&Russia's&total&economic&output
□
Monopoly&
□
So&state&run&entity
®
Technically&a&private&company,&but&the&state&owns&the&
majority&stock
□
Since&such&a&vital&company,&it&is&a&powerful&source&of&leverage&
for&the&govt
□
Results&in&weak&civil&society
◊
Makes&it&hard&for&business&people&to&challenge&the&govt,&
even&though&it's&totally&legal,&opposition&leaders&find&
that&few&businesses&are&willing&to&finance&and&few&
ordinary&Russian's&willing&to&support
®
Govt&entity&has&power&to&turn&off&heat&or&power,&so&peope&
think&twice&about&criticizing&the&govt
□
State&run&oil&and&gas&company&GasProm
§
Russian&state&retained&administrative&power&through&state&ownership&of&
industries&and®ulation&of&economy
○
Less&vulnerable&to&external&democratizing&pressure&than&Africa&or&LA
§
Democratization&has&to&occur&from&within,&won't&come&from&EU&or&
elsewheres
§
Russia&as&nuclear&power
○
Unbelievable&amount&of&crises
®
GDP&declined&by&40%&between&1990&and&1998
®
Worse&than&germany&during&great&depression&which&
gave&rise&to&Hitler
®
Strong&political&party&
}
Lacked&organized&state&(even&though&
strong,&it&wasn't&operational)
}
He&lacked&two&tools&to&exercise& power
◊
Yeltsen&loses&popularity
®
Because&Yeltsen&govt&was&unusually&weak□
Never&had&great&conditions,&so&why&did&it&look&democratic&during&
1990's?
§
Agencies&and&offices&were&in&state&of&chaos□
People&didn't&know&when&Soviet&Union&became&Russia&if&they&
still&had&jobs,&what&their&jobs&were,&and&during&economic&
collapse&state&bureaucrats&weren't&getting&paid,&which&led&to&
chaos&and&corruption
□
Went&from&being&the&biggest&state&in&the&history&of&the&world&(Soviet&
Union)&to&collapsing
§
But&bankrupt&and&falling&apart□
Regularly&disobeyed&by&other&officials
®
High&state&officials&including&Yeltsen&gave&orders,&they&didn't&
know&if&they&would&comply&with&them
□
Yeltsen&powerful&in&theory,¬&in&practice□
1990's:&Russian&state&was&big
§
Competition,&free&press,&opposition,&competitive&
elections
®
Looks&like&democratic&pluralism□
But&that&freedom&and&pluralism&exists¬&by&design,&but&by&
default
□
Free&press&because&govt&lacks&resources&to&stop&it&and&monitor&
and&punish&media
□
Elections&because&govt&lacks&capacity&to&organize&fraud□
Problem&with&pluralism&by&default,&is&that&whenever&the&govt&
gets&it&shit&together,&it&disappears&(putin)
□
Results'in'pluralism'by'default,'as'described'by'Lucan'Way
§
Vibrant&independent&media□
Old&communist&party&-- opposed&Yeltsen
®
Pro-western&liberal&party&that&sought&to&extend&
Yeltsen's&reforms
®
Yeltsen&is&in&the&middle
®
Several&important&opposition&parties□
Because'Yeltsen'did'not'have'a'party,'he'lost'control'of'
the'legislature'(DOOMA)
®
Dooma'began'to'threaten'to'impeach'Yeltsen'two'
years'into'his'term
®
Even&in&hayday&of&pluralism&by&default,&Russia&was¬&
democratic
□
Bombed&it&into&submission&and&killed&hundreds&of&
people
◊
Dissolved&DOOMA&unconstitutionally
®
When&faced&with&opposition,&he&called&the&troops□
Russia&under&Yeltsen&marked&by&pluralism&by&default
§
Conditions&for&democracy
○
US:&Yeltsen's&reelection&seen&as&victory&of&democracy
§
Election¬&democratic
§
4&months&before&vote,&Yeltsen&had&6%&approval&rating
§
Govt&played&dirty&and&tilted&playing&field
§
10's&of&millions&of&dollars&redirected&from&state&resources&towards&
reelection& campaign
§
Outspent&him&by&150:1
§
Head&of&Russia's&largest&private&TV&station&was&simultaneously&
Yeltsen's&director&of&media&operations
□
Adding&names&of&nonexisting&people&to&voter&rolls&(dead&
souls)
®
Massive&fraud&in&election&itself□
All&media&(state&and&private)&was&in&Yeltsen's&camp&(openly&pro-
Yeltsen)
§
US&didn't&address&fraud&(Clinton)&instead&applauded&democratic&
victory
§
1996:&Yeltsen&runs&for&reelection&against&old&Communist
○
Equally&unsuccessful
§
December&1999:&Resigns&and&hands&over&presidency&to&Vladmir&
Putin
§
Scheduled&elections&for&March&2000
§
1999:&string&of&terrorist&bombings&across&Russia&that&kills&hundreds&
of&people&-- Putin's&tough&response&helped&established&image&of&
tough&leader&and&gained&popularity
§
Main&rival&in&2000&election&was&same&communist&leader
§
Widespread&fraud&and&threats&if&people&didn't&vote&for&Putin
§
Villages&told&they&would¬&get&farming&supplies&if&they&didn't&back&
Putin
§
He&wins&easily
§
Second&Term
○
Consolidates&&authoritarian&rule
§
Strengthened&and&harden&a&fragile&autocracy
§
2000:&Putin&more&energetic,&ambitious,&and&skilled&than&Yeltsen
§
Knew&how&the&security&apparatuses&worked&and&how&to&use&
them
□
He&came&from&KGB
§
Early&1990's&troubles&were&gone□
2000's&state&now&basically&worked□
Russian&state&starting&to&function&again
§
Which&helped&him&keep&supporters&in&line&and&hold&back&
DOOMA
□
Putin&creates&strong&ruling&party&-- United&Russia
§
Russia&economy&grows&10%&in&2000□
Made&Putin&more&powerful
®
And&gave&him&much&more&resources&and&wealth
®
Averaged&7%&growth&between&2000&and&2007□
Price&of&oil&and&gas&skyrockets□
Massive&exporter&so&huge&influx&of&resources□
Economy&recovers
§
Putin
○
Yeltsen&ruled&over&a&bankrupt&failing&state,&Putin&presided&over&state&
overflowing&with&resources
§
Yeltsen&vs.&Putin
○
Puts&an&end&to&pluralism&by&default
§
Takes&advantage&of&the&economic&power&of&the&Russian&state,&to&do&
away&with&pluralism,&and&to&do&away&with&the&opposition&that&
existed&in&the&1990's
§
2001:&govt&forces&media&owner&into&exile&with&fraud&charges,&
and&put&company&in&hands&of&ally
□
Use&gas&funds&to&take&over&another&tv&station□
Used&libel&suits&against&journalists&and&newspapers□
Journalists&harassed,&threatened,&even&killed&(28&since&Putin&
elected)
□
NO&MORE&INDEPENDENT&MEDIA□
Went&after&media
§
Since&they&finance&opposition&parties&and&media&outlets□
Summoned&21&of&Russia's&leading&oligarchs&and&told&them&you&
are&free&to&make&as&much&money&if&you&stay&out&of&politics,&no&
one&can&finance&opposition
□
Finances&opposition&parties&and&candidate
®
Owner&of&Ukos&oil&company&-- Russia's&richest&man&--
considered&himself&untouchable&who&was&liberal& and&didn't&
like&Putin
□
2003:&Putin&has&him&arrested&for&tax&evasion,&embezzlement&
and&fraud&-- spends&10&years&in&prison
□
Putin's&lesson&was&clear&-- oligarchs&stayed&away&from&politics□
People&were&scared&to&fund&the&opposition&and&without&
access&to&the&media&and&finances,&opposition&groups&withered&
and&died
□
Opposition&parties&free&to&organize&and&compete&against&
Putin,&but&most&of&them&had&reduced&to&tiny&parties&that&were&
insignificant
□
2008:&Putin's&hand&picked&successor&where&most&serious&
candidates&were&excluded&on&technical&grounds
□
2018:&Putin&wins&77%&of&election□
Putin&sees&oligarchs&as&potential&threat
§
For&most&of&presidency,&oil&prices&high&and&economy&doing&
well
□
Much&better&than&during&Yeltsen□
Putin&wins&by&65&points&because&opposition&is&shut&out&of&
media&and&has&no&money
□
Putin&wins&in&part&due&to&popularity
§
What&does&Putin&do?
○
Russia•
3/29/18'PAPER'NOTES
Wednesday,& April&18,&2018 10:35&PM
Document Summary
1990: not obvious russia would follow path of authoritarianism. Per capita gdp in 1990 was double poland"s. Balance of power was more favorable to democracy in poland than russia. Russia had week civil society and more powerful state. Russia big and powerful country that was less susceptible to external influences and not allowed to enter eu. 96% of poles are catholic, and the church was very influential -- even communist forces didn"t try to wipe it out, but had to stay out of politics. Poland was never a truly totalitarian state, always degree of societal pluralism, plus had history of rising up against the regime. Intellectuals, workers, catholics at base of solidarity movement. 1980: workers went on strike, demanding the right to form independent unions. 8-10 million members of solidarity after only a year. After the govt declared marshal law, the soviet"s backed the polish govt.
