PSY 101 Lecture Notes - Standard Deviation, Blind Experiment, Central Tendency
Document Summary
Hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence are two reasons why we cannot rely solely on intuition and common sense. Hindsight bias = finding that something has happened makes it seem inevitable: i knew it all along phenonmenon. Good ideas are like good inventions once created, they seem obvious. Ohio state university, philip tetlock has collected more than 27000 expert predictions of world events, such as the future of south africa or whether. Curiosity (a passion to explore and understand without misleading or being misled: moses ! put it to the test. (can some people demonstrate esp?, empirical approach, skepticism. James randi, magician, skeptical of psychics: humility (an awareness of our own vulnerability to error and an openness to surprises and new perspectives) Critical thinking examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions. The scientific method: puts everything to the test. Theory = explains through an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events.
