PHIL 1200 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Fallacy
Document Summary
We wrongly focus on the rate of true positives. Neglect the base rate percentage of people who are expected to have the disease. We usually try to apply this to too small of a sample for it to work. Loan of cers are likely to reject current applicants if previous was accepted (there is a 5% bias) Humans aren"t good at judging probability; when faced with these problems, we should use the rules of reasoning. Heuristics are psychological tendencies; fallacies don"t have a real reason, we just tend to fall for them and get problems wrong. He bet a six would appear in 4 rolls of a single dice. His reasoning: (4)(1/6) = winning 2/3 of the time. Wrong calculation, but he did happen to win a lot. He bet that with two die, a double six would appear within 24 rolls (1/36)(24)= winning 2/3 of the time.
