PSYCH 4508 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Representativeness Heuristic, Daniel Kahneman, Rare Disease
19 Oct 2016
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Relative frequency approach: assign probabilities on the basis of long-run experience, example: probability of a home run, p(home run) = home runs/times at bat. Probability language and everyday language: the words and, or and independent have specific meanings for probabilities, these meanings can be different from those in everyday language. Deviation of bayes" theorem information and new information: we want to calculate p(d | +, by definition, expand denominator of (1, multiplcation rules, substitute (3) into (2, final formula. Revision of p(strep: p(strep) = p(d) = 0. 15 (subjective estimate) Useful probability formulas: revision of probabilities, flipping conditional probabilities, the ratio rule. Aids counseling for low-risk clients (gigerenzer et al. , 1998: consider heterosexual man with low-risk behavior who takes an hiv test. Don"t worry; the test is very reliable; trust me. : when pressed, the counselors" responses were universally above. 10 counselors expressed 100% absolute certainty of infection.
