EST 201 Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Technology Forecasting, Data Mining
29 Apr 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Three definitions of technology forecasting from leading experts
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Vanston
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A group of techniques that predict the direction, character, rate, implication, and impact of
technological advances
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Martino
A prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures, or techniques
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Porter
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Anticipation of the character, intensity, and timing of changes in technology
Technology forecasting is
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Technology Forecasting
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Continuity seems to be the norm
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Discontinuities are rare
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Examination of the historical growth of technological capability (speed, power, etc.) shows
surprisingly ordered patterns
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This leads to trend extrapolation techniques
Three rationales support the claim that technology can be forecast
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It is also sensitive to allocation of resources and social control through regulation
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By monitoring influencing factors, progress can be anticipated
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Technological development responds to opportunity and need
This leads correlation techniques
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Orderly progression of emergence
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New knowledge acquired
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Technology emerges from lab
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Technology is field tested
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Technology is commercialized
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Technology is widely adopted
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Understanding the processes of technological innovation aids in successful prediction of
technological development
Can Technology be Forecasted?
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Technology forecasting has not attained the level of "laws"
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Inherent complexity of the systems
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Social, political, economic, ethical influences
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Lack of significant databases
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It is still more art than science
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Experts are required
Technology Forecasting in Context
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Exploratory techniques seek to predict the state of a technology area in the future
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Normative techniques seek to determine courses of action to achieve a postulated
future state
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Exploratory vs. Normative
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There are multiple ways to classify technology forecasting techniques
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Directly forecast parameters of the technology
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Direct
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Porter, et al. suggest
Technology Forecasting Taxonomies
Week 9
Sunday, April 29, 2018
5:53 PM
EST 201 Page 1
