PHI 234 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Statistical Inference

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Week 11 Climate Change
Oreskes
Thesis: We ought to believe that global warming is caused by humans
We ought to eliee that Earth’s risig teperature is aused y huas.
Because
a. That’s the sietifi osesus
b. You ought to believe the scientific consensus, when it adheres to good
scientific practices
c. The scientific consensus in this case adheres to good scientific
practices
Statistical inference: take a sample from a population and generalize to the
wider population
Hypothetico-deductive method: propose a hypothesis, it predicts certain
outoes, if it’s true, the suh ad suh should follo ad happe. The
you take some observations, then if you observe those predictions, then you
confirm that hypothesis.
Falsification: makes certain predictions, take some observations, that thing
did’t happe, theory predited did’t our, falsify a hypothesis y shoig
hat it predits does’t atually our
Inference to the best explanation: the hypothesis with the best explanation
for it is the one that most likely to be true
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Document Summary

Thesis: we ought to believe that global warming is caused by humans. We ought to (cid:271)elie(cid:448)e that earth"s risi(cid:374)g te(cid:373)perature is (cid:272)aused (cid:271)y hu(cid:373)a(cid:374)s. Because: that"s the s(cid:272)ie(cid:374)tifi(cid:272) (cid:272)o(cid:374)se(cid:374)sus, you ought to believe the scientific consensus, when it adheres to good scientific practices, the scientific consensus in this case adheres to good scientific practices. Statistical inference: take a sample from a population and generalize to the wider population. Hypothetico-deductive method: propose a hypothesis, it predicts certain out(cid:272)o(cid:373)es, if it"s true, the(cid:374) su(cid:272)h a(cid:374)d su(cid:272)h should follo(cid:449) a(cid:374)d happe(cid:374). The(cid:374) you take some observations, then if you observe those predictions, then you confirm that hypothesis. Falsification: makes certain predictions, take some observations, that thing did(cid:374)"t happe(cid:374), theory predi(cid:272)ted did(cid:374)"t o(cid:272)(cid:272)ur, falsify a hypothesis (cid:271)y sho(cid:449)i(cid:374)g (cid:449)hat it predi(cid:272)ts does(cid:374)"t a(cid:272)tually o(cid:272)(cid:272)ur.

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