MIS 373 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Causal System, Strategic Planning, Time Series

• School: University of Arizona
• Department: Management Info Systems Main
• Course: MIS 373
• Professor: Eyran Gisches

Document Summary

A statement about the future value of a variable of interest. Required for making informed decisions and plans. Match supply (variety, capacity, production, inventory, staffing, equipment, purchasing) to demand (actual orders + forecasts) Ongoing operations - how to use the system . Or lifetime of the product or service. Actual results usually differ from predicted values. Forecasts of groups of items are more accurate than those for individual items. Forecast accuracy decreases as the forecasting horizon increases. Techniques assume some underlying causal system that existed in the past will persist into the future. Factors that are difficult, impossible to quantify. Personal opinions of experts, surveys, staff, managers. May be appropriate: no-available past data, changing markets, new products. Development as associative methods that attempt to use causal variables to make a forecast (equation using variables that affect demand) Time needed to gather and analyze data and prepare a forecast. Forecasts that project patterns identified in recent time-series observations.