A&O SCI 1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Northern Hemisphere, Permafrost, Thermohaline Circulation
2 Aug 2018
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Lec 11, 12 - the ipcc and future climate change . February 21, 26: a globally coordinated science. Global modeling centers coordinated common set of climate change experiments (to prepare for 2013 ipcc report) If not for international coordination modeling centers would each create their own scenarios of radiative forcing. This would make it impossible to separate uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge regarding future emissions (from uncertainty due to gaps in understanding of the climate system) Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (cmip5) - refers to fact that the latest ipcc report is the 5th one to appear. 4 radiative forcing scenarios to be imposed on the gcm"s: Numbers in names correspond to scenarios" approximate radiative forcing in. Most aggressive = radiative forcing of 8. 5 w/m 2 in 2100 ( rcp8. 5 ) Least aggressive = radiative forcing of 2. 6 w/m 2 in 2100 ( rcp2. 6 ) 2 other scenarios with intermediate radiative forcings by 2100:
