EEMB 146 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Sampling Distribution, Standard Error, Statistical Parameter
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1. You are given only three quarterly seasonal indices and quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the entire year. What is the raw data value for Q4? Raw data is not adjusted for seasonality.
Quarter Seasonal Index Seasonally Adjusted Data
Q1 .80 295
Q2 .85 299
Q3 1.15 270
Q4 --- 271
2. One model of exponential smoothing will provide almost the same forecast as a liner trend method. What are linear trend intercept and slope counterparts for exponential smoothing?
A. Alpha and Delta
B. Delta and Gamma
C. Alpha and Gamma
D. Standard Deviation and Mean
3. When performing correlation analysis what is the null hypothesis? What measure in Minitab is used to test it and to be 95% confident in the significance of correlation coefficient.
A. Ho: r = .05 p < .5
B. Ho: r = 0 p >.05
C. Ho: r ? 0 p?.05
D. Ho: r = 0 p?.05
In decomposition what does the cycle factor (CF) of .80 represent for a monthly forecast estimate of a Y variable? |
A. The estimated value is 80% of the average monthly seasonal estimate.
B. The estimate is .80 of the forecasted Y trend value.
C. The estimated value is .80 of the historical average CMA values.
D. The estimated value has 20% more variation than the average historical Y data values.
5. A Wendy's franchise owner notes that the sales per store has fallen below the stated national Wendy's outlet average of $1,368,000. He asserts a change has occurred that reduced the fast food eating habits of Americans. What is his hypothesis (H1) and what type of test for significance must be applied? |
A. H1: u ? $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
B. H1: u = $1,368,000 A two-tailed t-test.
C. H1: u < $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
D. H1: p < $1,368,000 A one-tailed test to the right
A. The rejection region and the t-table value generally gets smaller for sample size below 31. |
A. Yes. The data are significantly correlated through the 12th lag. C. No. Only the 12 lag period is not correlated. D. You cannot tell since the number of sample observations is not provided. E. The p-value is above .05 so the data is correlated. |
A. Type 2 error |
A. Yes. They move in the same direction as statistical significance. |
A. The weight cannot be calculated since the data observation is not given. |
A. Yes. The correlation coefficient is .873 that is greater than .05. |
A. Yes, since the residuals randomly vary in magnitude. |
A. -101.0 |
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This includes showing all calculations and explaining why you selected a specific answer for each multiple choice question (i.e. donât just circle the correct answer). I am looking to see how you got the answer, not just that you have the correct answer.
Below is data from the United States Cancer Statistics about the number of news cases of lung cancer in males in the U.S. for 2011 for ages 30 and older.
Table 1: U.S. Population Size and Incidence Cases of Lung Cancer in Males for 2011
Age (Years) | U.S. Male Population | White Population | White Incidence Cases | Black Population | Black Incidence Cases |
30-34 | 10,181,564 | 7,950,924 | 88 | 1,383,650 | 22 |
35-39 | 9,666,162 | 7,557,263 | 212 | 1,271,897 | 23 |
40-44 | 10,363,126 | 8,259,215 | 643 | 1,324,847 | 132 |
45-49 | 10,856,131 | 8,766,225 | 2,032 | 1,373,346 | 444 |
50-54 | 10,976,172 | 9,004,383 | 5,128 | 1,329,551 | 1,148 |
55-59 | 9,733,849 | 8,101,629 | 8,607 | 1,091,030 | 1,687 |
60-64 | 8,466,308 | 7,183,960 | 12,340 | 845,362 | 2,067 |
65-69 | 6,014,777 | 5,178,255 | 15,792 | 539,796 | 2,077 |
70-74 | 4,360,942 | 3,769,569 | 16,011 | 376,129 | 1,864 |
75-79 | 3,204,196 | 2,807,216 | 14,319 | 255,221 | 1,426 |
80-84 | 2,319,839 | 2,078,071 | 11,284 | 154,155 | 883 |
85+ | 1,873,942 | 1,688,433 | 7,616 | 117,267 | 545 |
Total | 88,017,008 | 72,345,143 | 94,072 | 10,062,251 | 12,318 |
3. What is the age-specific incidence rate for lung cancer in white men age 75-79 for 2011?(1 pt)
0.005 per 1000
1.3 per 1000
1.2 per 1000
5.1 per 1000
5.6 per 1000
F. Cannot be calculated from the given information
4. What is the age-specific incidence rate for lung cancer in black men age 75-79 for 2011? (1 pt)
0.005 per 1000
1.3 per 1000
1.2 per 1000
5.1 per 1000
5.6 per 1000
F. Cannot be calculated from the given information
Questions 5 through 7 are based on the information below:
Using the information in Table 1, researchers calculated the crude incidence rates and age-adjusted incidence rates (via the direct method) for both groups.
Table 2: Crude incidence rates and age-adjusted incidence rates for white and black males
White Males | Black Males | ||
Crude Incidence Rate | Age-adjusted Incidence Rate | Crude Incidence Rate | Age-adjusted Incidence Rate |
1.3 per 1000 | 1.2 per 1000 | 1.2 per 1000 | 1.5 per 1000 |
5. True or False, there is likely a difference in the age composition between the white and black males. Explain your answer
6. Based on the information in Table 2, it was reported that there was an increased risk of lung cancer in black males in 2011. (1 pt)
The conclusion is:
Correct, the age-adjusted rate is higher in black males compared to white males
Correct, because both the crude and age-adjusted rates are higher in black males compared to white males
Incorrect, because the incidence rate for white males is actually higher than the incidence rate for black males
7. What type of age-adjusted rate was calculated in table 2? How does it differ from the age-adjusted rate in question 5 in the in-class exercise for age-adjustments? Hint: See slide title: Adjustments for Other Measures of Disease Frequency in the lecture title Adjusted Rates (1 pt)
Question 8 is based on the information given below:
Cause-specific mortality rates for men in 2010 in the U.S. from various types of cancers are shown in the table below:
Cause-Specific Mortality Rates
(per 100,000 Men)
Location of the Cancer
in the Body White Asian
Pancreas 13.2 5.7
Prostate 19.1 2.5
Lung 62.3 18.5
Skin 4.9 0.3
8. The inference that White men in the U.S. are at higher risk of death due to cancer of the pancreas, prostate, lung, and skin compared to Asian men in the U.S. is
A. correct
B. incorrect because of failure to determine cause-specific mortality rates
incorrect because proportionate mortality alone does not give an estimate of risk
D. incorrect because of failure to adjust for differences in the age composition of the two populations
E. incorrect because counts were used when cause-specific mortality rates were needed
9. In January 1996, a team of epidemiologists identified a sample of 4,500 men, 65-74 years of age, for a study of prostate cancer. Tests indicated that 315 of the men already had prostate cancer and, therefore, were not at risk. The rest of the men were followed prospectively for five years to determine the incidence rate of prostate cancer in the sample. By the end of the five years of follow-up 156 of the men had developed prostate cancer. What is the incidence rate of prostate cancer in this group?
10. An epidemiologic investigation that started on January 1, 2011, identified a population of 1,000 individuals. At the start of the study 4 were found to have the disease. During the year of study, 6 new cases were found; thus a total of 10 cases were identified. Among those 10 cases, 6 deaths occurred during the year. What was the prevalence of the disease during the 1-year study?