CS 3341 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Random Variable, Statistical Hypothesis Testing, Conditional Probability
16 May 2018
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Section 1.1 - 1.2
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“We balance probabilities and choose the most likely. It is the scientific use of the
imagination.”
—Sherlock Holmes, The Hound of the Baskervilles
Uncertainty
We make decisions in everyday life in the midst of uncertainty. For example,
Will it rain tomorrow?
Will my car start when I go to work? Will I arrive safely?
Will I pass this course? What grade will I make in this course?
How long will I wait in line? How long will this download take?
How many people will come to my office this afternoon?
How many people support this bill? How many people will buy this product?
Can I trust this statement or belief or theory to be true?
This course is about measuring, quantifying, and modeling uncertainty.
Random Variables
A key aspect of this course is the notion of “random variables.”
Example: The number of days it will rain at this location next April.
Example: The amount of time, in seconds, you will wait in line next time you buy a meal.
