Please do not regurgitate the question already on the site, it is NOT helpful. Hi there, can you please provide input. This is for a MBA level class, so it needs to be very specific. I have completed a general answer but again the answer needs to be clear and specific and detailed, I feel I need additional help to what is being asked. I reviewed some answers on this site and either they are just too general or the level of english is so poor and it makes it difficult to understand what is being said. thank you. "Suppose you were working as an Asian investment analyst and were asked to provide a brief report(1-2 pages) on the Japanese economy during the coming two years. Use the Three-Sector Model to explain the effects an increase in Chinaâs real GDP should have on the Japanese economy. Remember that if Chinaâs real GDP rises, the nation will import more from Japan. Assume that Japan and China have high-mobility international capital markets and that Japan wants to keep the yen tied to the yuan so the exchange rate between the yuan and yen is fixed."

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Lelia LubowitzLv2

17 Jul 2018

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Subaru's Sales Boom Thanks to the Weaker Yen For the Japanese carmaker Subaru, a sharp fall in the value of yen against the U.S. dollar has turned a problem the lack of U.S. production into an unexpected sales boom. Subaru, which is a niche player in the global auto industry, has long bucked the trend among its Japanese rivals of establishing significant manufacturing facilities in the North American market. Instead, the company has chosen to concentrate most of its manufacturing in Japan in order to achieve economies of scale at its home plants, exporting its production to the United States. Subaru still makes 80 percent of its vehicles at home, compared with 21 percent for Honda. Back in 2012, this strategy was viewed as something of a liability. In those days, one U.S. dollar bought only 80 Japanese yen. The strong yen meant that Subaru cars were being priced out of the U.S. market. Japanese companies like Honda and Toyota, which had substantial production in the United States, gained business at Subaru's expense. But from 2012 onward, with Japan mired in recession and consumer prices falling, the country's central bank repeatedly cut interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. As interest rates fell in Japan, investors moved money out of the country, selling yen and buying the U.S. dollar. They used those dollars to invest in U.S. stocks and bonds where they anticipated a greater return. As a consequence, the price of yen in terms of dollars fell. By December 2015, one dollar bought 120 yen, representing a 50 percent fall in the value of the yen against the U.S. dollar since 2012. For Subaru, the depreciation in the value of the yen has given it a pricing advantage and driven a sales boom. Demand for Subaru cars in the United States has been so strong that the automaker has been struggling to keep up. The profits of Subaru's parent company, Fuji Heavy Industries, have surged. In February 2015, Fuji announced that it would earn record operating profits of around Â¥410 billion ($3.5 billion) for the financial year ending March 2015. Subaru's profit margin has increased to 14.4 percent, compared with 5.6 percent for Honda, a company that is heavily dependent on U.S. production. The good times continued in 2015, with Subaru posting record profits in the quarter ending December 31, 2015. Despite its current pricing advantage, Subaru is moving to increase its U.S. production. It plans to expand its sole plant in the United States, in Indiana, by March 2017, with a goal of making 310,000 a year, up from 200,000 currently. When asked why it is doing this, Subaru's management notes that the yen will not stay weak against the dollar forever, and it is wise to expand local production as a hedge against future increases in the value of the yen. Indeed, when the Bank of Japan decided to set a key interest rate below zero in early February 2016, the yen started to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, presumably on expectations that negative interest rates would finally help stimulate Japan's sluggish economy. By late March 2016, the yen had appreciated against the dollar and was trading at $1=112 yen. Sources: Chang-Ran Kim,Subaru-Maker, Fuji Heavy Lifts Profit View on Rosy US Sales, Weak Yen Reuters, February 3, 2015; Yoko Kubota, Why Subaru's Profit Is Surging, The Wall Street Journal, November 14, 2014; Doron Levin, Subaru Profit Soaring on Weaker Yen, Market Watch, November 15, 2014; Y. Kubato, Weaker Yen Drives Subaru Makers Profit Higher, The Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2016. Page 294

Case Discussion Questions:

Why do you think that historically, Subaru chose to export production from Japan, rather than set up manufacturing facilities in the United States like its Japanese rivals?

What are the currency risks associated with Subaru's export strategy?

What are the potential benefits? Why did Subaru's sales and profits surge in 2014 and 2015? Is Subaru wise to expand its U.S. production capacity?

What other strategies could the company use to hedge against adverse changes in exchange rates? What are the pros and cons of the different hedging strategies Subaru might adopt?

ambermoose899

After our last "conversation", I came up with some additional questions that I believe if I can answer when talking to my boss will increase my chances of landing a raise this year. It seems to me that if the economy grows, then my salary should grow as well. Given that this will be the premise of my argument, I need to have the following questions answered:

a) What would be the best measure of growth in the economy? I have heard the terms GDP, Personal income, Disposable income, and others that relate to the U.S. economy. Could you please sort out this terminology for me, and make a recommendation for which of these measures of economic performance I should use in my contract negotiations? If you could provide some definitions for these measures, it would make me feel more confident.
b) How fast has the economy grown over the last year, the last decade before the current recession, and since 1978 when I entered the job market? If you could provide this information as a percentage growth rate, I would greatly appreciate your efforts. Also, please show me your calculation in case I want to reproduce it for my boss. I am not so swift at the whole math thing.
c) Lastly, I was listening to a news broadcast the other evening and reported was discussing gross national income. This is confusing to me because I thought the measure of income and output were measure by GDP; at least that is what I remember from a friend of mine who took econ in college. Please give me a brief explanation of GDP and how it relates to gross national income. If you could provide a picture or diagram to help me understand I would greatly appreciate the effort. My boss gets crafty occasionally and I would like to understand these concepts if he starts talking about gross national income. Just in case. In addition, is this a good time to crank on my boss for the raise?

greywombat503

Article:

INTRA, Portugal--Leaders of the world's top central banks warned Wednesday that escalating trade conflicts could ricochet through financial markets and hurt the world economy, potentially prolonging the era of ultralow interest rates.

Rising tensions over trade come at an awkward time for major central banks, which have started moving away from easy-money policies introduced since the global financial crisis.

In a moderated discussion in Portugal, the heads of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia called for calm and warned that the costs of further escalation could be high.

Global stock markets sagged this week after U.S. President Donald Trump called for a fresh round of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, upping the ante after he previously approved tariffs on $50 billion of goods.

"It's very worrisome and again, I can't see any positive," said ECB President Mario Draghi, who was hosting the event, Europe's answer to the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Mr. Draghi warned that disputes over trade have created "considerable uncertainty" for the 19-nation eurozone economy, which has slowed sharply in recent months.

The European Union said Wednesday it would impose tariffs on U.S. goods worth around [euro]2.8 billion ($3.2 billion) in response to American import tariffs on steel and aluminum. But the EU's move is unlikely to discourage the U.S. from a second round of tariffs, possibly targeted at European autos, which would hit exports worth 0.3% of the EU's economic output, said Oliver Rakau, an economist with Oxford Economics in Frankfurt.

In a shift reflecting those concerns, Mr. Draghi warned Tuesday that the bank could delay plans announced only last week to phase out its [euro]2.5 trillion bond-buying program and suggested the timing of a first interest-rate increase could be pushed back.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned in the discussion that changes in trade policy "could cause us to have to question the outlook." The Fed last week raised short-term interest rates and signaled a quicker pace of interest-rate increases to keep the U.S. economy from overheating.

While the tensions haven't yet dented U.S. economic growth, Mr. Powell said businesses increasingly were expressing concerns to the Fed about how the conflict might affect their plans for investment and hiring.

For Japan, whose central bank maintained its aggressive stimulus policies last week to support a softening economy, the trade conflict is "a matter of great concern," said Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda.

The indirect impact on Japan's economy could be "quite significant if the escalation between China and the U.S. continues," Mr. Kuroda said, because it could affect the Asian supply chain centered on countries like Japan and Taiwan and across southeast Asia.

While the tariffs themselves might not derail the global economic recovery, the fallout could be magnified by investors through financial markets, said Australia's central bank governor, Philip Lowe.

"I believe what is happening [on trade] is incredibly worrying," Mr. Lowe said. "It wouldn't take that much for financial markets to turn this into a very big global event."

The problem for central banks, in Japan and elsewhere, is that they appear to have little ammunition left to deal with any new economic downturn after years of aggressive stimulus. The value of assets held by the Bank of Japan is set to exceed the nation's annual economic output over the coming months, while the ECB's balance sheet also will continue to grow through the end of this year. Both central banks are still holding short-term interest rates below zero.

Asked how the ECB could respond to any new recession, Mr. Draghi said he didn't expect economic growth to turn negative between now and 2020.

Mr. Powell acknowledged that central banks would have less capacity to fight any new recession because interest rates are already close to zero. The U.S. government also has less scope to increase spending than in the past, though it still has room to react, he said.

"I really hope that this escalation could be rescinded and a normal trading relationship between the U.S. and China would prevail," Mr. Kuroda said.

As there any positive outcomes of rising trade tensions, according to central bankers? . What actions would central banks in theory launch, in theory, to counteract any problems with economic growth in their countries? Why are central banks worried about these policy moves at this point in time?