BA 30310 Quiz: Foresight Quiz 3 Part 1

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22 May 2018

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Foresight Quiz #3

Key Terms and Concepts:

• Scenarios – Expected and Alternative:

o Expected Scenario:

▪ what is going to happen

• most likely future (surprise-free) but probably NOT going to

happen

▪ How to generate=

• forecast each trend that will impact future of topic and then

determine cumulative impact

o Alternative Scenario:

▪ what might happen instead

• introduce uncertainty

o events/issues

▪ How to generate =

• identify plausible events and emerging issues and then prioritize

by likelihood and impact

• The Turkey Problem:

o A turkey is fed to , days y a uther, ad eery day ofirs to the turkey

ad the turkey’s eoois departet ad the turkey’s risk aageet

departet ad the turkey’s aalytial departet that the butcher loves

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