POL-UA 700 Study Guide - Final Guide: Ideal Point, Bayesian Game, Nash Equilibrium

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Beliefs on equilibrium path have to be consistent with strategies as per bayes" rule. P (e | f) = [p(f | e) * p(e)] / [p(f | e) * p(e) + p(f | r) * p(r)] = (1 * 0. 3) / [(1 * 0. 3) + (1 * 0. 7)] = 0. 3. Check if this equals the last value in the strategy. Is the action prescribed to the obama administration, (take seriously | fake news) consistent with the posterior belief that. Eu (take seriously | fake news) = payoff (seriously | fake news by evil) * pr(evil | fake news) + payoff (seriously | fake. News by real) * pr(real | fake news) = Eu (not take seriously | fake news) = payoff (not seriously | fake news by evil) * pr(evil | fake news) + payoff (not. Seriously | fake news by real) * pr(real | fake news) =