GEOG10001 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Arable Land, One-Child Policy, Flood Mitigation
16 May 2018
School
Department
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Professor
LECTURE 9: CHINA – NEO-MALTHUSIANS
Lester Brown – ‘Who Will Feed China?’ 1995
• Book had a pessimistic argument that China would not be able to feed itself
• Argument premises: large population (predicted to rise), changing patterns of food consumption
(increasing demand), land use diverted due to urban expansion, water resource shortages, limited
scope for increasing yields and diminishing returns
• History of China: initially good agricultural production, then dense population leads to decreases in
cultivated area + therefore decreases in production, whilst affluence is increasing demand – all
leading to an imbalance in production + consumption, and the increased need for imports
Counter Argument: Gerhard Heilig
• Use statistical analysis to prove Brown was wrong
• Has enough arable land + water to feed projected population, even at current levels of technology
o However, need advancements in the following areas: water use + efficiency, transport infrastructure, flood prevention +
research into crop science
CHINA: FEEDING ITSELF
Nature of the challenge:
• Massive population, China has 20% of world’s population but only 11% of world’s
agricultural land
• Relatively land scarce country: agricultural land endowment only half the world average
• Farms are tiny in comparison to other counties
Recent surge in food imports:
• Impressive agricultural output growth
• Trade in food balanced until 2008
• Now: net importer of food + net grain importer (staple food)
• Impact of import-dependant China: overseas acquisitions (buying companies in other countries) + will have control of supply + price
of food to minimise instability in China
o Could cause major geopolitical changes on the global food market
Population
• Exponential growth, took off in 1950’s
• Demographic transition: crude death rates fell, birth rates became stable, fertility rates lowered
o Mainly due to ‘One child policy’
• Despite this transition, growth will still occur, as rate is above replacement rate – issues of ageing population
Changing Consumption Patterns
• Good job in addressing under-nourishment
• Shift from export-driven to consumer-driven economy
• Growing middle class leading to a shift from plant-based to animal based diets (increased demand for animal products)
• Gap between production + consumption in grain – lead to need for imports
o Soybean: self-sufficient supply previously, now due to pop growth + changing diets, more in consumed than produced
• Increased consumption of higher energy foods
Land Use
• Arable land: China has a surplus, more than needed to feed the people – amount has risen in recent years
• Urban expansion threats arable land, and on flat + mountainous land
o Increased percentage of people living in urban areas – conversion of arable land to housing
• Government response: if you acquire land to produce cities, you must create agricultural land elsewhere
o Agricultural land being pushed to grassland – low productivity
Soil Degradation + Yield
• Diminishing returns
• Significant agricultural intensification = yield growth
o Large variation however, between countries – yet still major growth
• Future yield increases possible if: improved soil management, crop research, improved irrigation, better transport + reduction of losses
post-harvest
o Challenge lies in increasing the yield without causing further environmental degradation
• Massive state investment in agricultural research
• Some areas have been over-exploited – intervention + rehabilitation through plantation of degraded areas
Water Resource Shortages
• Most fresh water located in region where agriculture is low
• Water deficits in northern agricultural regions – reliance on groundwater – over-extraction leading to salinisation
• Floods reduce production on floodplains where agriculture is most intensive
Responses:
• Water wastage can be reduced + irrigation can be made more effective
• Modern flood mitigation technology can significantly reduce losses due to flooding
• South to North Water Transfer: moves water to the drier north, connecting river basins, megacities, provinces + millions of water users +
polluters
Brown v Heilig Debate
• Historical, most of
the data is old
• Still raises relevant
questions of
global food
security
• Consequences of
China importing
food a major issue
Chinese Famine 1959-1961
• Up to 30 million deaths
• Set ups: climate, economy +
agriculture
• Massive institutional + policy
failures
• Threatened social stability
• Reflected in current policy
Government has responded to food security on a domestic scale, however it is increasingly becoming a global problem due to im ports
Document Summary
Lester brown who will feed china?" 1995. Book had a pessimistic argument that china would not be able to feed itself. Argument premises: large population (predicted to rise), changing patterns of food consumption (increasing demand), land use diverted due to urban expansion, water resource shortages, limited scope for increasing yields and diminishing returns. Use statistical analysis to prove brown was wrong. Has enough arable land + water to feed projected population, even at current levels of technology. Still raises relevant questions of global food security: consequences of. However, need advancements in the following areas: water use + efficiency, transport infrastructure, flood prevention + research into crop science. Nature of the challenge: massive population, china has 20% of world"s population but only 11% of world"s agricultural land. Relatively land scarce country: agricultural land endowment only half the world average. Farms are tiny in comparison to other counties. Now: net importer of food + net grain importer (staple food)
