ECON204 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Dynamic Inconsistency, Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting

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17 May 2018
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Topic 12
*A lot of this topic was just reviewing past topics this has been excluded from these notes.
Should policy-makers be restrained?
1. Policy makers may have good intentions, but they may end up doing more harm than good.
a. Uncertainty
b. Time inconsistency
2. Poliy akers do hat is est for the, hih is’t eessarily hat is est for the outry.
a. The political business cycle
Therefore they should be restrained to some degree!
Uncertainty and Policy
Macroeconomic policy makers in general do not have all the knowledge required for solving
economic problems.
They rely on macroeconometric models, all of which give different answers for how to solve
a particular problem.
While all 12 US models predict that output will increase for some time in response to a monetary
expansion, the range of answers regarding the size and the length of the output response is large.
There is substantial uncertainty about the effects of policy.
Substantial uncertainty about the effects of policies implies policy makers have to be more
cautious and use less active policies.
Should stop well short of fine tuning i.e. trying to achieve constant unemployment or output
growth, or a constant rate of inflation.
This is why the RBA aims to target inflation within a range, 2-3%, over the course of the
business cycle.
Establishing Credibility
Ways to deal with the problem of time inconsistency, without totally stripping policy-making power
from the central bank (e.g. by adopting a currency board as in Hong Kong), include:
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