ECON1102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Aggregate Supply, Adaptive Expectations, Output Gap

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19 May 2018

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10 – Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply

Aggregate supply – how does inflation change with aggregate production?

• Expected rate of inflation

 Assume expected & actual inflation is sticky or slow to adjust in the short-run

(a) Consistent with observed persistence in inflation rates

i. Actual = expected inflation: π = πe

ii. Adaptive expectations: πe = π-1

iii. Actual inflation: π = π-1

(b) Inflation is constant (fixed or sticky) in short-run

• Aggregate shocks to business production costs

 Introduce one-period shocks to inflation rate (e.g. indirect tax changes or

changes in energy prices)

 π = π-1 + 

(a)  > 0 = adverse or unfavourable shock

(b)  < 0 = favourable shock

• Size of the output gap in the economy

 In longer term, output gap is an important influence of inflation

(a) Expansionary (Y > Y*) = rising inflation

(b) Contractionary (Y < Y*) = falling inflation

Adjustment of AS curve to contractionary gap

• Over time Y1 < Y* causes fall in inflation

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• Fall in inflation and smaller contractionary gap

• Inflation will fall until Y = Y*

• AD and AS model in long-run equilibrium

Long-run equilibrium

• Output = potential

• Inflation rate is constant over time

Economic shocks and the business cycle

• AD shocks (permanent)

 Exogenous changes in AD curve

• AS shocks (one-period)

 General inflation of cost shocks to economy

• Shocks to potential output (permanent)

Permanent increase in AD (short-run)

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Document Summary

Aggregate supply how does inflation change with aggregate production: expected rate of inflation. Introduce one-period shocks to inflation rate (e. g. indirect tax changes or changes in energy prices) = -1 + (a) > 0 = adverse or unfavourable shock (b) < 0 = favourable shock: size of the output gap in the economy. In longer term, output gap is an important influence of inflation (a) expansionary (y > y*) = rising inflation (b) contractionary (y < y*) = falling inflation (c) zero (y = y*) = constant. Adjustment of as curve to contractionary gap: over time y1 < y* causes fall in inflation, fall in inflation and smaller contractionary gap. Inflation will fall until y = y: ad and as model in long-run equilibrium. Economic shocks and the business cycle: ad shocks (permanent) Exogenous changes in ad curve: as shocks (one-period) General inflation of cost shocks to economy: shocks to potential output (permanent)

Related Questions

Please help wtih these economics questions. I'll give the best answer to the person who justifies their answer.. or someone who does well in economics and knows the subject area well.

Which of the following statements is not true about Say's Law?

A. People produce more goods than they want for their own use only if they seek to trade them for other goods.

B. Markets would be regularly hit by severe shortages and surpluses.

C. Desired expenditures will equal actual expenditures.

D. Surpluses will be eliminated by falling prices and shortages will be eliminated by increasing prices.

Which of the following is not an assumption of the classical model?

A. Buyers and sellers react to changes in relative prices.

B. Households want to maximize economic well being.

C. Wages and prices will move freely in the upward direction but not the downward direction.

D. No single buyer or seller of a commodity can affect its price.

Money illusion is

A. when people think they are better off when their income increases even though prices have increased by the same amount.

B. when people are motivated by self-interest.

C. could not exist if the economy did not have competitive markets.

D. a basic condition that all classical economists assume people have.

Saving is not a problem in the classical model because

A. interest rates were flexible and savings were channeled into investment.

B. savers and investors were the same people.

C. the classical economists assumed that saving was beneficial to people for retirement.

D. saving would be spent by consumers eventually.

Which of the following statements is true?

A. There is an inverse relationship between investment and the interest rate.

B. There is no relationship between investment and the interest rate.

C. There is a direct relationship between investment and the interest rate.

D. Investment is always less than savings.

In the classical model, high unemployment due to either a demand or a supply shock

A. will return to its normal level quickly as wages adjust.

B. will persist if due to a supply shock but not if due to a demand shock.

C. can persist for an indefinite period of time.

D. never exists because unemployment can never deviate from its normal level.

The classical model makes little distinction between the long-run and short-run because

A. the model has not been fully developed yet.

B. prices adjust so fast that the economy is quickly moving towards the long-run.

C. the classical economists knew that we are always operating in the short run.

D. current changes influence the long run, so it is not possible to plan for the future.

In the classical model

A. the level of real GDP per year does not depend on the level of aggregate demand.

B. the level of GDP is demand determined.

C. the level of GDP determines prices independent of demand.

D. changes in aggregate supply affect the price level, not real GDP.

Which of the following is a true statement?

A. Classical economists believed output adjusted more than prices when aggregate demand fell while Keynes believed prices adjusted more than output.

B. Classical economists believed price adjusted more than output when aggregate demand fell while Keynes believed output adjusted more than prices.

C. A decrease in aggregate demand has no short-run effects according to the classical economists, but had significant effects according to Keynes.

D. A decrease in aggregate demand was not possible according to the classical economists, but was possible according to Keynes.

Which of the following is not a reason why GDP can be expanded beyond a level consistent with its long-run growth path in modern Keynesian analysis?

A. Prices and wages are flexible allowing for needed adjustments.

B. In the short-run existing workers can work more hours.

C. The existing capital stock can be used more intensively.

D. Higher prices induce firms to hire more workers.

A recessionary gap can be caused by

A. a decrease in aggregate supply holding aggregate demand constant.

B. an increase in aggregate demand holding aggregate supply constant.

C. an increase in the long run aggregate supply curve holding the aggregate demand constant.

D. a decrease in both aggregate demand and aggregate supply.

lemonpug153

1.Ceteris paribus, if the U.S. federal government reduces its budget deficit which of the following will be observed?

Answer

	a.	The aggregate demand curve will shift to the right.
	b.	The economy will always approach potential GDP.
	c.	The marginal propensity to consume will increase.
	d.	The average price level will increase.
	e.	The aggregate demand curve will shift to the left.

2. If the government wants to close a GDP gap, it can:

Answer

	a.	lower government spending on social security.
	b.	adopt contractionary fiscal policies to control inflation.
	c.	increase its budget deficit.
	d.	repay its borrowings.
	e.	raise both direct and indirect tax rates.

3. Suppose the short-run equilibrium level of income exceeds the full employment level of income and there is high inflation. Hence, the government decides to implement a fiscal policy that will act to reduce national output and price level. This can be accomplished by:

Answer

	a.	lowering average tax rates such that aggregate supply is increased.
	b.	increasing government spending such that aggregate expenditures are increased.
	c.	increasing transfer payments such that aggregate expenditures decline.
	d.	raising taxes and government spending by the same amount such that aggregate supply is decreased and aggregate demand is increased.
	e.	decreasing government spending such that aggregate demand is reduced.

4. A drop in investment spending caused by increased government budget deficits is referred to as:

Answer

	a.	the multiplier effect.
	b.	crowding out.
	c.	an expansionary gap.
	d.	the paradox of thrift.
	e.	the Ricardian equivalence.

5. Discretionary fiscal policy is best defined as:

Answer

	a.	the deliberate manipulation of the money supply to expand the economy.
	b.	the deliberate change in tax laws and government spending to change equilibrium income.
	c.	the policy action taken by the Congress to reduce the federal budget deficit.
	d.	the arbitrary fluctuation in tax laws and budget requirements.
	e.	the automatic change in certain fiscal instruments when real GDP changes.

6. Which of the following can be considered as an automatic stabilizer in the economy?

Answer

	a.	Money supply
	b.	Disposable income
	c.	Real exchange rate
	d.	Real interest rate
	e.	Unemployment insurance

7. Which of the following is true about automatic stabilizers?

Answer

	a.	When income rises, automatic stabilizers increase/boost spending.
	b.	Automatic stabilizers are a part of discretionary fiscal policy.
	c.	An automatic stabilizer is any program that responds to fluctuations in the business cycle in a way that moderates the effects of those fluctuations.
	d.	Any kind of trade policy adopted by the government will be considered as an automatic stabilizer.
	e.	The interest rate is an example of an automatic stabilizer.

8. Increased budget deficits

Answer

	a.	can cause interest rates to increase and hence decrease net exports
	b.	have no effect on net exports
	c.	can cause interest rates to decrease and hence increase net exports
	d.	never impose additional interest costs on the government

9. The Ricadian Equivalence implies that when financing additional government expenditures

Answer

	a.	there is no difference between increasing current taxes or borrowing now and increasing taxes in the future because consumption will decrease either way.
	b.	there is no difference between increasing current taxes or borrowing now and increasing taxes in the future because consumption will increase either way.
	c.	increasing borrowing is the best option
	d.	increasing current taxes is the best option

10. Assuming no effects on aggregate supply, if the government increases government spending and decreases taxes in an attempt to prevent a possible recession, aggregate demand will shift to the ____, the price level will either remain constant or ____, and the level of real GDP will ____.

Answer

	a.	right; decrease; increase
	b.	right; decrease; decrease
	c.	left; decrease; decrease
	d.	left; increase; increase
	e.	right; increase; increase

11. For a hypothetical economy, the MPS is 0.08 and the MPI is 0.17. If government spending increases by $35 and taxes increase by $35, what will be the net effect on equilibrium income?

Answer

	a.	A decrease of $35
	b.	An increase of $105
	c.	An increase of $35
	d.	A decrease of $105
	e.	A decrease of $15

12.12. The term fiscal policy refers to

Answer

	a.	the adjustment of the GDP for inflation.
	b.	the purchase and sale of U.S. government securities to regulate the money supply.
	c.	the use of government spending and taxation to influence the level of economic growth and inflation.
	d.	the use of fines to penalize unfair business practices.
	e.	a policy action by Congress to overrule unpopular budget cuts by the president.

13. If aggregate demand intersects aggregate supply in the vertical range of the aggregate supply curve, then, other things equal, an increase in government spending will

Answer

	a.	raise the price level and leave real GDP unchanged.
	b.	raise real GDP by the amount indicated by the government spending multiplier and leave the price level unchanged.
	c.	raise both real GDP and the price level by a multiple of the initial spending increase.
	d.	have no effect on real GDP or on the price level, because all private investment will be crowded out.
	e.	lower real GDP by an amount equal to the spending increase and reduce inflation.

14. Which of the following is not a means to finance government spending?

Answer

	a.	Government subsidies
	b.	Government debt
	c.	Capital gains taxes
	d.	Personal income taxes
	e.	Money creation

15. An automatic stabilizer is

Answer

	a.	a change in government spending aimed at achieving a policy goal.
	b.	an element of fiscal policy that automatically changes in value as real GDP changes.
	c.	an element of monetary policy that automatically changes in value as real GDP changes.
	d.	a decrease in tax rates as the economy moves into a recession.
	e.	a deliberate change in taxation aimed at increasing real GDP.

16. Budget deficits tend to grow during recessions because

Answer

	a.	real GDP growth is zero, which causes neither tax receipts nor government expenditures to grow.
	b.	real GDP growth is positive, which reduces both tax receipts and transfer payments.
	c.	real GDP growth is negative, which reduces transfer payments in relation to tax receipts.
	d.	real GDP growth is negative, which reduces tax receipts in relation to government expenditures.
	e.	real GDP growth is positive, which increases tax receipts in relation to government expenditures.

1. According to the Solow model, an increase in the capital-labor ratio will a. always increase steady state consumption per worker b. reduce steady state consumption per worker if the capital-labor ratio is below the Golden rule capital stock c. always reduce steady state consumption per worker d. increase steady state consumption per worker if the capital-labor ratio is below the Golden rule capital stock

2. In a steady state a. capital and labor, by definition, are inversely related to one another b. both consumption per worker and the capital-labor ratio are constant c. consumption per worker can change, but the capital-labor ratio is constant d. consumption per worker is constant, but the capital-labor ratio can change

3. Which of the following changes would lead, according to the Solow model, to a higher level of long-run output per worker? a. An increase in the saving rate b. A lower level of capital per worker c. A decrease in productivity d. A rise in the rate of population growth

4. In the long run, a reduction in productivity will cause a. an increase in the capital-labor ratio and a decrease in consumption per worker b. a decrease in the capital-labor ratio and a decrease in consumption per worker c. a decrease in the capital-labor ratio and an increase in consumption per worker d. an increase in the capital-labor ratio and an increase in consumption per worker

5. An increase in the growth rate of population in a steady-state economy would cause a. a pivot down and to the right in the investment line b. a parallel shift downward in the investment line c. a pivot up and to the left in the investment line d. a parallel shift upward in the investment line 1 2

6. In the efficiency wage model, an increase in productivity would a. have no effect on either output or the real wage b. increase output but have no effect on the real wage c. decrease the real wage but have no effect on output d. increase output but decrease the real wage

7. Keynesian economists believe that in the short run, a. money neutrality does not exist and prices adjust rapidly b. money neutrality does not exist and prices do not adjust rapidly c. money neutrality exists and prices adjust rapidly d. money neutrality exists and prices do not adjust rapidly

8. If the expected inflation rate is unchanged, a fall in the natural rate of unemployment would a. not shift the Phillips curve b. shift the Phillips curve to the left c. shift the Phillips curve to the right d. shift the Phillips curve to the left and shift the long-run Phillips curve to the right

9. Classical economists believe that in the short run, a. money neutrality does not exist and prices adjust rapidly b. money neutrality does not exist and prices do not adjust rapidly c. money neutrality exists and prices do not adjust rapidly d. money neutrality exists and prices adjust rapidly

10. The fact that the long-run Phillips curve is vertical implies that a. money canât affect inflation in the long run b. money is neutral in the long run c. monetary policy canât affect unemployment d. there is a natural rate of inflation

1. Briefly explain the shape of the per-worker production curve in the Solow model. If investment per worker initially exceeds saving per worker, how is the steady state capital-labor ratio achieved?

2. Describe the effects of a rise in the domestic real interest rate on the exchange rate and on both domestic and foreign net exports.

3. For each of the following changes, what happens to the real interest rate and output in the short run, before the price level has adjusted to restore general equilibrium? a. Wealth declines b. Money supply declines c. The future marginal productivity of capital declines d. Expected inflation rises e. Future income rises

ECON1102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Aggregate Supply, Adaptive Expectations, Output Gap

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