Short Answer 1-8 [10 points each and each about 1/2 – 1 page double-spaced]:
1. If the spot rate for the Swiss Franc is that 1.05 SF is equal to 1 US $, and the annual interest rate on fixed rate one-year deposits of SF is 0.15% and for US$ is 1.5%, what is the nine-month forward rate for one dollar in terms of SFs? Assuming the same interest rates, what is the 18-month forward rate for one SF in US$s? Is this an indirect or a direct rate? If the forward rate is an accurate predictor of exchange rates, in this case will the SF get stronger or weaker against the dollar? What does this indicate about the market’s inflation expectations for Switzerland as compared to the United States economy?
2. On June 1st, 2017, Sandoz expects to ship 3 million units of a new drug from its Swiss plant to the US that it will sell through pharmacies on 270-day terms at $95 each. Therefore Sandoz will receive payment from these outlets on February 25th, 2018. Assuming that Sandoz needs to cover its expenses in Switzerland and thus wants to hedge its SF/US$ exposure using a forward contract with a Swiss bank, what is the minimum amount of Swiss Francs they should receive on February 25th, 2018 given 9-month forward rate you calculated in problem one for one US $ in terms of SF? What are two other ways Sandoz might hedge its SF/US$ exposure?
3. In his book Manias, Panics and Crashes (see the Introduction and Chapters posted on the class website) Charles Kindleberger explains the three stages of how a financial crisis develops and evolves over time. Please briefly explain these stages and how the Baltic and Mexican Tequila Crises as presented in Hill text and class case presentation follow this economic pattern or paradigm.
4. Toyota, whose global sales are generally dollar denominated, finds it has excess cash of $85,000,000,000, which it can invest for up to three years. It has determined that its best options are either a three-year Euro-dollar ($) deposit paying 2.65% or a three-year Yen denominated deposit paying 1.55% since it expects the Yen to appreciate 1.2% per annum against the dollar over the next three years. Using cash flow analysis determine the best currency option in which Toyota should invest. Be sure to show your complete calculations of the annual return on each investment possibility at the end of the three-year term. Assume that the annual interest amount is reinvested, i.e. compounds, at the same annual interest rate. Would your answer change if Toyota revised its outlook for the Yen to appreciate 1.1% per year? Show all calculations!!!
5. Country A has 20,000 units of labor and can produce 2 goods, manufactures and food. A’s producers take 5 units of labor to produce one unit of manufactures and 2 units to produce one unit of food. Country B has 30000 units of labor and takes 3 units to produce one unit of manufactures and 3 units to produce one unit of food. What is price of manufactures in terms of food at which A and B would respectively supply manufactures? What would B export in Adam Smith’s world? What is the amount it could supply?
6. Companies can be hurt by rapid changes in exchange rates even if their initial hedging actions appear reasonable. Explain how the VW case reflects this situation and what it could have done differently to manage the adverse impact of dollar depreciation. 7. Explain how Timberland developed global supply chain problems and then how they developed new logistical and partner relationships that used both IT and a changed physical distribution system to solve these issues.
