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Lecture

MATH 1P98: Poisson Probability


Department
Mathematics and Statistics
Course Code
MATH 1P98
Professor
Dot Miners

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Poisson probability
1) Large # of trials; n>100
Small probability of success; np<10
2) An observed probability of success over a given time period; Num of fish/hour
λ = Mean number of success over a given time period
r = # of successes over same time period
NOTE: λ and r have same time period
Ex: Police officer observed that on average, he stops 0.7 people per hour.
λ = 0.7ppl/1hr
What are the probability in a 8hr shift?
λ = (0.7ppl/1hr)(8hrs/8hrs)
= 5.6ppl/8hr
P(r) = (e- 5.6* 5.6r)/r!  probability of pulling over r people in an 8hr shift
= (e- 5.6* 5.65)/5!
= 0.169711
**HOW TO DO THIS ON CALCULATOR: shift button, dot button, (negative button), 5.6 times 5.6, yx, 1
divide 1, shift button, 4
λ = (given probability/1 hr) * new time fram
Chap 6: Normal Distribution
1) Bell shaped
P(r) =
(eλ)(λ)r
r !
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