SCIE 1P50 Lecture Notes - Lecture 18: Representative Concentration Pathways, Ocean Current, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

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Scie 1p50 lecture #18 wednesday, november 9th, 2016. Data tells us about the past: but in nonlinear systems (like climate), past trends not necessarily predictive of future. Models project the future: connect hypotheses with data, can work with nonlinear systems. Gcms general circulation models: climate models which contain the behavior of the ocean circulation terrestrial hydrology and sea ice. Esms earth system models: climate models which combine atmosphere, ocean, land & sea ice, & the various biogechemical cycles such as those involved in the carbon cycle, the sulphur cycle or ozone. 3 dimensional mathematical simulations: based on first principles : physical equations of motion & state, transport of heat, moisture & energy, gridds (4-5 latitude or 400-500km, time steps (15-30 minutes) long term simulations (years to centuries) local. Computationally expensive: hundreds of supercomputer hours per run. Scientists test climate models by entering climate data from past years.

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