MONDAY OCTOBER 21, 2013
• Trend in business, government, NGOS,
• Decisions supported by
• Empirical (factual) data: have to look up data from reliable sources
• From reliable sources
• Stat Can, IMF, OECD, IEA, BoC, GoC
• (Scattering of sources)
• Today decisionmaking is based on facts and not feelings
• Require facts, data
• Avoid data from advocates with a POV
• Eg union, ENGOs
• Corps required by law to file 10Ks (www.sec.gov)
Primary vs Secondary Evidence
Primary = producers of the original information
Eg Corp F/S , Government dept annual reports
Eg Stats Can, IMF, BoC, OECD
Secondary= academics, journalists, NGOs
Who express opinions about primary information
Primary data and primary information are far more important
Much more empirical
Professors and students gravitate to secondary
Primary data is empirical
Methodology or Comparability
• Apples to apples
• Methodology > comparability
• So we normalize the data
• Eg percentage of GDP, or per capita
• To adjust for differences in sizes
• To enable comparison
Youth unemployment is at an alltime high Data 19762012
1976 to towards 2012 on the vertical axes is the unemployment rate for 15 24 years
old. Ben Tell created this using Bell Canada, Statistics Canada CIBC
He did smoothing, he drew a line to try to see the trend line , the trend line is flat but
everybody is telling us the youth employment is going up. That is wrong because the
empirical data shows its not.
What are we going to do about youth unemployment?
Nothing its been like this for 40 years
Excluding it’s 1518 years old
The real unemployment rate for teens might be overstated if you remove students’
Last 20 years from
It’s been about 7%
Well Known Fact:
Post Secondary Education is NOT worth it
Everybody is going to University
1 in 4 today is going to University
You will also say the number who haven’t completed high school have grown from 4
out of 10 in 1990 and its down to 20% that means 1 out of 5 do not graduate from
The days that getting a good job with high school education is gone
College graduate are about 30%.
You can see that yellow line is post secondary education generates income of double
of grade 12 or less.
“It does not matter what degree you choose. “
Stats Can Data,
Earning premium above grade 12
Math , computer & phys sci >86%
Engineering > 117%
B.Comm > 74% premium
The market has become more sophisticated.
“Occupy Wall Street said the number of poor people in Canada are
In 1989 > 1 in 4
In 2012 > less than 1 in10 are down the poverty line These aren’t opinions. Stats Can data they got the data, CRA > Tax return office they
get aggregated they compute the income in Canada.
Poor is poor and Rich are getting richer
US senses beauru chart
Yet poverty strongly associated with no post secondary education
Poverty is unbelievable associated with
Middleclass is being hollowed out
Income is very sensitive to recession.
The data does not agree
19921993 Data Source: Cansim Table 2022071
OECD, GDP per capita 2011 this is the think tank for the richest country
They are earning of statistician in Paris they interpret the data into GDP (gross
domestic product) totality of all the wages, income (what we make)
This is the standard graph that is used to check the wealth.
GDP > Take the totality of the country and take the totality of the population.
Evolution of the size of middleclass since 1981 to 2006
It’s the trend of the data over the past 30 years the argument is that middleclass is
shrinking so in other words middle class is not by the empirical data.
The bottom 40% is paying the 13% of the total totality of the rate is the poor people.
Canadian pension plan needs to be increased as many elders in Canada are below the
When you start working they take 9% off so every pay check takes this off and now
they want take off 13%.
This is the OECD source. > Poverty rate amongst Elders.
Take a look the poverty rate is US is about 22%
Canada > 5.5% is third lowest in the world
Canada is the only country that reduced Corporate Income taxes
Every country has decreasesd
OECD shows all OECD haave reducted CIT for past 30 years
Internationally Corpprate income ax rates are trending downwards for a 3 of a
Canada should increase their CIT the Canada market is not doing well Corp taxes are 12.0% of GoC revenue
Despite reductions in the corporate income tax rate, corporate income tax
Well known fact:
The current federal government has slashed the federal public service to
Harper has been hiring people
#of individuals of the federal payroll rose 14% between 2006 and 2012
Public service is bigger today than before he came in the office.
In CANADA , WE OVER INCARCERATE LIKE THE UNITED STATES.
Senator Kenny run this exact claim.
Yet of 2.5 million crimes/years only 98K go to jail
In 2011 statistic came from the 2012
Only 14K in federal prisons
All the way back to 2002 we had 12,652 prisons locked up.
In 2012 we have 14,419
In United States the number people that are incarcerated are 2 million.
Canada is below OECD average
OECD provides comparative data just about everything.
What is the number