PHIL 2003 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Bear Stearns, Wine Tasting
Document Summary
Cramer said bear stearns is not in trouble and then 3 days later the stock lost. 90% of its value: those who claim to be the most certain often have the least expertise; those (cid:449)ho are(cid:374)"t sure of their o(cid:449)(cid:374) a(cid:271)ilities te(cid:374)d to ha(cid:448)e the (cid:373)ost e(cid:454)pertise i(cid:374) the field. We cannot do this because it is not reasonable. In forming beliefs, we have no choice but to rely on experts. In a practical sense we cannot become experts on everything ourselves. Sometimes these theories do not hold up but this is how the process of knowledge acquisition works. A priori truth: statements we know to be true based on reasoning and logic without relying at all on observations. If there is no way at all that the statement could be false then it is a priori. If there is a chance that the statement could be false but is probably true, then it is empirical.