PSCI 3603 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Preventive War, Second Strike, Bounded Rationality
1 Aug 2016
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Document Summary
Scott sagan: more will be worse: militaries have biases and behavior that could cause deterrence failures o. Thesis: future nuclear powers may have huge civil-military relations issues. Sub units have multiple, conflicting goals: militaries may mess up the operational requirements for deterrence. More likely to see war as inevitable. Militaries might not devote resources to making the weapons secure. Oppose innovation, creation of new units, resources for rivals o. Slow learning: this gives away the location of nuclear weapons. U. s navy opposed submarine ballistic missile program: militaries may be prone to accidents or unauthorized use. Future nuclear powers may have civil-military relations issues. Iran: iran"s revolutionary guard has a large role in iranian politics. Pakistan: pakistan has been subject to bouts of military rule. Scenario 1: non-state groups build a weapon. Deterrence should work against rogue states for a handoff situation.
