Forensic Class 8.odt

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29 Mar 2012
Forensic Psychology
Class: Risk Assessment
March 20, 2012
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders:
The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 20, 315-335.
Develop an actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of violent recidivism
618 male offenders/patients
332 admitted for treatment to maximum security psychiatric institution
286 admitted only for brief pretrial psychiatric assessment
All predictor variables were coded retrospectively from institutional files
Inter-rater Reliability
Three coders
20 randomly chosen participants
Reliability criterion was set at .70
For the variables that met this criterion, mean correlation was .90 and mean kappa was .83
Violent Recidivism
Post-release offences coded from official files
Any new charge (or equivalent) for a Any new charge (or equivalent) for a violent offences
Violent offences included all assaults and sexual assaults, armed robbery, forcible confinement,
threatening, and pointing a firearm” (p. 322)
Mean time at risk = 81.5 months (SD = 60.6)
Violent recidivism rate = 31% (191/618)
Separate stepwise discriminant analysis for each set of variables
–Childhood history Childhood history
Adult adjustment
– Index offences
Assessment result
These discriminant analysis were conducted separately for each of five groups of participants
–Entire Entire sample (N = 618) sample (N = 618)
– Treated participants (n = 332)
Assessed participants (n = 286)
– Randomly selected half of the entire sample
Remaining half of the entire sample
Only variables selected by at least three of the five discriminant analysis of the different
participant groups were different participant groups were entered into the final discriminant
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