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ATOC 184 (67)
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Tues, Mar 11.docx

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Department
Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Course
ATOC 184
Professor
Eyad Atallah
Semester
Winter

Description
TuesdayMarch112014ColdWavesLookoutfortheweatherthisWednesayandThursdayItsgoingtobeareallyinterestingeventHAWhatisaColdWaveAninfluxofunusuallycoldairintothemiddleandlowerlatitudesSothequestionbecomeswhatisunusuallycoldoTheanswerisdifferentfordifferentlocationsExwhatisacoldwaveinVancouverwouldnotqualifyasacoldwaveinMontrealANormalDistributionInprobabilitytheorythenormalorGaussiandistributionisavercommonoccurringcontinuousprobabilitydistributionafunctionthattellstheprobabilitythatanobservationinsomecontextwillfallbetweenanytworealnumbersHowweexpectourdatatobedistributedColdwavesandheatwavesarethenumberofdaysinthetailsofthedistributionoAcoldwavewouldbethenumberofdaysinthenegativetailofthedistributiontheverycoldestdaysTheBellCurveThebellcurvewhichrepresentsanormaldistributionofdatashowswhatstandarddeviationrepresentsExBetweenastandarddeviationof1and168ofthedatawillexistWhenwetalkaboutastandarddevof2weretalkingaboutthecoldest23ofthedataoExthisdayis2standarddeviationsawayfromnormalthereforethisdayintermsofcoldtemperatureisinthetop3ofthecoldestdaysthatwehaveTemperatureforMadisonWisconsinThereddotsrepresentwhatwewouldexpectthedistributiontolooklikeifitwasacompletelynormalbellcurveTheskewnessisnegativemeansthatthereareslightlymorevaluesonthetailendonthenegativesidethanwewouldexpectandslightlyfewervaluesonthetailendofthepositivesideoOuractualmeanisclosertothemaximumpositivevaluesthatwewouldexpectthanthemeanistothemaximumnegativevaluesthatwewouldexpectSoWhatisSkewnessSkewnessisameasureoftheasymmetryofprobabilitydistributionsNegativeskeworleftskewhasfewerlowvaluesandalongerlefttailwhilepositiveskewhasfewerrightvaluesandalongerrighttailNegativeskewnessmeansthehighestfrequencymeanisactuallyalotclosertoourmaxvaluesthanitistoourminimumvaluesdifferencebetweenmaxvalueandmeanismuchsmallerthanthedifferencebetweenoutmeanandoutminvalueIngeneraltemperatureareforthemostpartnormallydistributed
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