ECON 209 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Output Gap, Demand Shock, Disinflation

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Why wages change: output gaps, y > y* - excess demand for labour, y < y* - excess supply of labour, expected inflation, some firms raise wages in advance of inflation. Change in money wages = output gap effect + expectational effect. From wages to prices: overall effect on nominal wages determines how the as curve shifts - has an impact on the price level. Actual inflation = output-gap inflation + expected inflation + supply shock inflation: the last term captures any shifts in the as curve caused by things other than wage changes. Demand shocks: demand inflation results from a rightward shift of the ad curve, a demand shock that is not validated produces only temporary inflation. With monetary validation: the ad curve shifts further to the right, keeping open the inflationary gap, continued validation turns transitory inflation into sustained accelerating inflation.

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