ECON 209 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Aggregate Demand, Production Function, Shortage

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2018_02_12 ECON 209
Lecture 11: Chapter 25: Long-Run Economic Growth
25.1 The Nature of Economic Growth
I. Economic growth is the sustained, long-run increases in the level of real GDP
A. The “rule of 72”: used to understand the cumulative effects of annual growth rates
1. How many years it will take to double the salary/income of the economy
2. For any variable that grows at an annual rate of X percent - that variable will
double in approx. 72/X years
II. Future value = Present Value x (1 + g)n
A. g is the growth rate of the economy
B. n is the number of years
C. A more general measurement of the income
III. These 3 economic variables show different aspects of economic growth
A. Each variable is expressed as an index number
B. To generate more and more output - population growth
1. Real per capita GDP has been growing (less than the Real GDP)
C. Change in real GDP per worker is a measure of productivity
IV. Benefits of Economic Growth
A. Rising average living standards
1. Change in income → Changes the whole society’s consumption patterns
a) Low income - consume more durable goods
b) Higher income - consume more services
2. More environmental protection
B. Addressing poverty and income equality
1. More capable to do so when richer
2. Can reduce poverty in the economy
3. Easier for the government to tax the income and distribute it
a) Redistribution is easier in a growing economy
4. Not everyone benefits directly from growth
V. Alleviation of poverty and inequality
A. In recent years, the majority of aggregate income growth in many countries (including
Canada) has been accruing to the top earners in the income distribution
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1. The result: while average per capita incomes have been rising, there has also
been a rise in income inequality and a relative stagnation of incomes for those at
or below the middle of the income distribution
B. Poverty and income inequality are important challenges for public policy
VI. Costs of Economic Growth
A. Sacrifice of current consumption
1. To grow, need to save more and consume less
2. Growth is often encouraged by increasing investment and saving
B. Social costs of growth
1. Growth usually incomes the displacement of some firms and workers
2. This process involves real transition costs
VII. (Graph below) The red economy (red line) consumes more and saves less (growth rate of the
red is lower than the blue one)
A. After 30 years, the blue economy is growing fast enough to surpass the red one
B. The orange area represents the loss in consumption in the blue economy compared to
the red
1. Breaks even at 19 years
VIII. Social Costs of Growth
A. Part of growth is accounted for by the existing firms:
1. Expanding and producing more output
2. Hiring more workers
3. Using more equipment and intermediate goods
B. Another aspect of growth is that:
1. Existing firms are overtaken and made obsolete by new firms
2. Old products made obsolete by new products
3. Existing skills are made obsolete by new skills
C. Often argued that costs of this kind are a small price to pay for the great benefits that
growth can bring
D. HOWEVER: many of the people for whom growth is most costly (lost jobs, lowered
incomes) share least in the fruits that growth brings
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IX. GDP Accounting: The Basic Principle (see Additional Topic)
A. Consider the following identity:
1. Decompose GDP in 3 parts
2. Multiply GDP by the factors of production employed (and divide it by the same)
3. F is the amount of factors (how many factors of production we have in the
economy) - the factor supply
4. FE is the amount of employed factors
5. FE/F is the factor utilization rate
6. GDP/FE is a simple measure of productivity
B. Any change in GDP must be associated with a change in one or more of these things
C. How the three components change over time:
1. Factor Supplies - supplies of labour and capital change only gradually
2. Productivity - changes only gradually
3. Factor Utilization Rate: Fluctuates a lot in the short run, very little in the long run
D. Changes in output in the long term
E. Changes in productivity are the force (explains the changes in GDP in the long run)
X. Factor Supply can increase for 2 reasons:
A. Labour
1. Greater immigration
2. An increase in birth rates/decrease in mortality rates
3. An increase in labour-force participation
B. Capital
1. Changes in the rate of investment generate changes in the economy’s capital
stock
2. Dramatic changes in the annual flow of investment generate almost
imperceptible changes in the stock of capital
3. Long run changes
XI. Productivity Changes
A. Important to measure long-run changes
B. Measures the average amount of output that is produced per unit of input
C. Can be several measures
1. Here we use the ‘output-per-employed factor’
D. Long run changes
XII. Factor Utilization
A. The fraction of the total supply of factors that is employed
B. The factor utilization rate fluctuates in response to short-run changes in output caused by
aggregate demand or aggregate supply shocks
C. Over time: excess supply or excess demand for factors causes an adjustment in factor
prices that brings the factor of utilization back to its ‘normal’ level
D. These changes are not important for explaining long-run changes in GDP
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