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April 8th

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GEOG 205
Gail Chmura

April 8 , 2013  video that is listed for the readings today is an important concept for the final exam**  scenarios are plausible descriptions without ascribed likelihoods of possible future states of the world o IPCC doesn’t try to assert any feelings towards certain scenarios  don’t want to say which one is more likely than the other o they don’t necessarily encompass the only possible scenarios  things could change  how can we classify the different types of impacts? o atmosphere o lithosphere (rocks) o biosphere (not limited to land or ocean) o hydrosphere o cryosphere o anthrosphere  “an increase in average global temperature will affect the rate at which vegetation grows, which has a large impact on the earth’s radiation balance through albedo”  which sphere? biosphere  “it may affect animals adaptation. it may lead them to relocate to a new habitat with preferred climate and could cause a chain reaction effect”  which sphere? biosphere  “due to an increase in temperature over time, agriculture will have to be relocated. indeed, we won’t be producing Bordeaux in France but in the UK.”  sensitivity: the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate related stimuli; includes mean changes, variability and the frequency/magnitude of extremes  adaptive capacity: ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including variability and extremes) in ways that moderate potential damage, take advantage of opportunities, or cope with consequences  vulnerability: the degree t which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effect of climate change, including variability and extremes  there are natural impacts that are already taking place. but how does the IPCC know this? they’ve looked at more than 29 000 observational data series from 75 different studies… 89% confirm warming & it is very unlikely that they result from natural variability in climate o cryosphere  enlargement/increase numbers of glacial lakes; increasing ground instability in permafrost regions; rock avalanches in some mountainous areas; changes in some Arctic/Antarctic ecosystems; o hydrosphere  increase runoff and earlier spring discharges from glacier/snow fed rivers; warming of lakes & rivers; changes to thermal structures of lakes and rivers o biosphere (terrestrial)  earlier timing of spring events (leaf unfolding, migration, egg laying); poleward & upward shifts in plant/animals ranges; satellite observations since 1980 record earlier greening of vegetation o biosphere (marine & freshwater)  rising water temperatures, changes in ice cover/salinity/ oxygen levels/circulation; shifts in range and composition of algae, plankton & fish with higher abundance in higher latitudes (where it is colder); increases in algal & zooplankton abundances in high altitudes; range changes and earlier migration of fish in rivers  summary of categories that we can put human impacts into: o human health  disease  there has been an increase in malaria by 220 million to 400 million people; there will be decreased cases in Africa but increased cases in UK, Australia, India & Portugal  Canadian northward expansion of Lyme disease  European increase in tick-born encephalitis projected to move eastward  reduction in rainfall leads to reducing effluent dilution & increased pathogens BUT extreme rainfall will do the opposite  cold & heat waves  death from heat increases  cold related deaths to increase in UK more than heat related deaths  air pollution  reducing air pollution concentrations can be substantial to health  4.5% increase in ozone related deaths  0.1-0.3% increase in non-accidental mortality and an average 0.3% increase in cardiovascular disease mortality o industry, settlement & society  depends on geographic/sectoral scale of attention  scale in t
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