MATH 223 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Lab Report, Metapopulation, False Positive Rate

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Samuel Fatehi
November 6th, 2018
Lab Report 8 Habitat Analysis
8.1: Projecting a landscape change model
Figure 1: This figure represents the hard prediction of the land cover for the year 2000. Hard
Prediction: “the program has made a decision, based on the model, for each pixel to either
transition to the disturbed land cover or stay as the original land cover.”
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Figure 2: This figure represents the hectares of disturbance predicted for the year 2000 versus the
actual hectares of disturbance for 1984 and 1996.
Figure 3: This figure represents the actual hectares of disturbance for the year 2000 versus the
actual hectares of disturbance for 1984 and 1996.
Question 1:
When looking at the maps of predicted amount of disturbance in 2000 versus the actual
amount of disturbance, it is very easy to see that the map of the predicted disturbance has many
more hectares, and the disturbance is present throughout the map, not just concentrated in the
bottom left-hand corner of the map like in the prediction map of disturbance. In addition, when
looking at the histograms, it is clear that the amount of hectares of disturbance is much lower
than the amount of actual hectares of disturbance.
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