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Lecture 10

POLI 340 Lecture 10: Palestine
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Department
Political Science
Course Code
POLI 340
Professor
Rex Brynen

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Lecture - Palestine – 13/10/2016 Regime dynamics: Palestine  Gaza (Hamas): suppression of Fatah, Quartet (US, Russia, EU, UN) conditions o Since 2007, when Hamas took over Gaza, much international aid to Gaza dropped off, until Hamas accepts the two-state solution  Israeli sanctions/blockade – tunnel o Israeli fires at boats that cross the blockade with machine guns, cannons o Israel imposed sanctions on the Gaza strip – idea was to reduce Hamas support by putting the people into poverty  Ensure humanitarian conditions wont crash into famine, since UN Refugee aid present o led to construction of tunnels from Egypt to Gaza, many goods smuggled through tunnels  many tunnels were closed after Morsi, many more after Sisi  Gaza wars (2008, 2012, 2014), periodic wars have led to a deterrent relationship with Israel since Hamas doesn’t want a devastating fight, and Israelis don’t want to reoccupy Gaza and don’t want Hamas to attack o Hamas and radical jihadists  Not much “resistance” not very “Islamist”, at times have to act tough politically o Trying to run Gaza under conditions of siege, little natural resources and aid (would not be sustainable if there wasn’t foreign aid)  Efforts at Fatah-Hamas reconciliation o Strategically, both leaders recognize the split is counterproductive for Palestinian interests, but neither are willing to compromise Arab Spring: Jordan  Arab Spring spurs come pro-reform protests o East Bank (tribal, conservative) vs. Palestinian divisions used to undercut these, implication that any far reaching political reform would empower Palestinians and weaken power of East Bank political elites  Growing criticism of Abdullah (and Queen Rania) by East bank regime constituency o Vague promises of reform, civil service wages increased, (financial aid from Gulf) o New PMs  New parliamentary elections in Jan 2013 o Elections law retains many controversial elements (27 of 150 seats for parties, 15 for women, 108 single vote/multi-member constituencies)  Could only cast one vote – main reason for giving vote to one candidate?  Tribal relations were single largest consideration, honesty and integrity the second o Significant discontent for the direction that Jordan is heading – partially due to increased sensitivity from the Arab Spring  Economy is a major source of grievance, people aren’t concerned with political reforms  People believe stability and security is going the right way with Jordan Arab Spring: Palestine  Economic slowdown + fiscal austerity + absence of peace process = “Palestinian Spring”, protests in WB summer/fall of 2012 o Partly supported by Fatah, unhappy with Fayyad o There were protests in 2012, against what was then government of Salam Fayyad  Withdrawal of Hamas HQ from Damascus o Shift to Gaza and (military?) wings, political vs. military wing of Hamas o In some ways weakened Hamas, lost territorial sanctuary etc.  Hamas hoping that election of MB in Egypt (and Islamists elsewhere) will strengthen its position) o Impact of Egyptian coup, Hamas ideologically sympathetic to Syrian opposition, it wasn’t willing to back the regime’s position  Attempts to appear neutral didn’t go well o Relationships with Egypt improved, ended when Morsi government was overthrown, Sisi government views Hamas as a terrorist organization  Cooperates with Israel for anti-Islam movements  2014-15: technocratic “national unity” government under PM Rami Hamdallah o Resigns, cabinet shuffles (wanted a neutral cabinet of technocrats to unify the government), Hamas said they didn’t agree to this, but haven’t decried it either Looking Ahead: Jordan  Repercussions of Syrian civil war, Iraq, rise of ISIS – severely muted reform movem
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