The Arab Spring
Very little changed for a long time. Now its fast.
- US should respond to Syrian chem weapons? Many factors to decide. What are
the consequences? Again many.
- Should the US cut the military aid to Egypt cos of the coup against pres morsi?
Again many factors. On one hand the overthrow was popular in Egypt but it was
a coup again. How US influence tilts in Egypt? What implications it has for other
militaries in the arab world. Does it matter. How much leverage does US has in
Egypt? What does Egypt population thinks? Where is Egypt headed. Egypt will
go back to a new transition or will it go towards another military dominated
- Was Libya a policy success? Cos now they chose their own leaders or was it a
failure cos of the small arms proliferation. Where is Libya headed?
You cant really answer these questions because it isn’t clear yet. It will take years
for stuff to settle down and see how it turned out to be.
World bank estimate transitions take 20-25 years for an effective transitions.
Essay theorize what is imp and what isn’t. justify. Poli social econ variables and
the events. - Civil war in Libya but historically it was the most stable place on the planet in terms of
regime transitions. Most of the regimes of 70s survived till 2010. (exceptions in iran,
American intervention in Iraq etc). Iraq also showed the stability of the region cos
saddam couldn’t be removed without attacking although US tried all other means to oust
him. Saddam was in power despite neighbours hating him, losing two wars etc. this
stability was highly authoritarian. And they remained more or less authoritarian despite
the third wave of democracy. (eastern Europe and latin America)
- Puzzle why did middle east had such remarkable stability for so long. 2009 map before arab spring
Purple is authoritarian middle east is purple.
Term Arab spring is more optimistic? But arab spring is perfectly ok.
Middle east is still looking purple. Large number of authoritarian countries. 40 years of authoritarian regimes. Sudden set of transitions. Veg seller on fire in Tunisia. Ben ali
goes to saudia.
Why in Tunisia? Were structural conditions so bad that it only needed a spark? Was it decision
by key actors in the society at this point? Bad handling of the crisis by ben ali? Ben ali gave poli
speaches (assad and qaddafi too gave bad speaches) Inspired by Tunisian revolutions. Mubarak loses support of military and is arrested.
Both Tunisia and Egypt military supported protestestors. Tunisian military is not in politics now
but in Egypt its still the single most powerful actor in Egypt.
Bahrain shia majority and sunni regime/army. Still protests but regime is in control. Many Libyans don’t like US but Libya has a lot of US supporters (tied with the amount in
Australia) Morocco PM chosen from wining party not by the king
Regimes make reforms which decades later turn out to be very imp.
Britain -> became a democ sometime btw magna carta and when women got the right to vote.
No date. Whole series of things. Monarchs making minor concessions. Maybe when blair
reformed the house of lords? You cant point to a date.
Were morocco reforms cosmetic or in 50 years this will be seen as the start of democ
Saudia, gulf oil money to buy peace
No country in the middle east has been unaffected by the arab spring. It has effected the foreign
policy of iran turkey and Israel. Check the link
- Tunisia has its poli crisis. Demands for rewriting constitution. It hasn’t done a bad job.
Couple of poli assassination. Seems to be doing more or less ok. - Egypt is a mess parli was dissolved by courts. Courts were Mubarak appointees. Morsi
rammed through constitution to a reform by getting lot