Feb 21, 2013
States and Nuclear Weapons
- Who has them?
o US, Israel, France, Russia, China, UK (all members of security council)
o India and Pakistan are openly nuclear
o Israel has no comment policy on nuclear weapons
o N.Korea developments
- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
o Started in 1970
o 3 main pillars:
Non proliferation (don’t want it to spread)
Disarmament (US and Soviet Union)
Right to peaceful use of nuclear technology
Keeps coming back for Iran’s case
Allow to have it for energy but you have to allow for
- Waltz: Why do states seek nuclear weapons?
o Balance-of power threat and security dilemma (Iran against Israel)
o Domestic power and standing (Enhancing national pride and power)
o Regional standing and direct deterrence (Iran?)
- Why do we fear states with nuclear weapons?
o Are such fears rational? (Waltz)
o Potential risk
o Many worry about it falling into the wrong hands; rogue state
Irrational leaders or terrorists
Both of these reasons stated a lot for Iran
So much concern has been pointed toward Iran because he has
acknowledges that he wants to destroy the state of Israel,
denying the holocaust and saying their illegitimate
BUT Iran has had chemical weapons for a while and have not
employed it against Israel there are divisions within the
actual government about how much Abamadinejad uses this
language and hurts their international relations
Iran’s Nuclear Sites
- Older one is in Arak
- Ones open for inspection are focused on low-enrichment Uranium
- You need to increased enrichment from 3-5 % for Uranium energy but if you
are developing a nuclear weapons program, you need to enrich it to 20%
o The levels being developed at Natanz and Qom are worrisome
o Will probably be negotiated next week o Qom is deep inside of mountain so it can’t be surveyed by satellite
monitoring which has been done with some of the other sites
o Pressure on Iran to close or move the Qom site to somewhere it can be
monitored by international community
- Parchin is the military site once you have the Uranium, you still need the
warheads and stuff to launch them but Iran has not let inspectors go here
Iran’s Nuclear Program
- In the 70’s it was supported by Europe, US when the Shah was in power
o Diplomacy push between West and Iran
- When revolution happened, they had set the program aside from the war and
in the last 10 years we have seen it develop further
- Do they want nuclear weapons?
o Khamanei has a 2005 fatwa in which Iran publically came out and said
they have no intention of nuclear weapons and didn’t want a nuclear
state religious ruling coming out of state
o Why do they want the bomb?
Israel rhetoric, US, regional actors?
Pakistan is a nuclear state and is on the border of Iran and is a
source of instability for them right now
Enhance Iran’s position in the Gulf and throw its weight
around with Saudi Arabia and the GCC
- Is Iran complying with the NPT and treaties?
o Iran is a member the NPT
o Are they in violation?
IAA and NPT are trying to differentiate b/w non-compliance
and violation and it gets into a grey area
o Iran has not been complying in the sense it has not fully disclosed
extent of prog