going through a turbulent time since around December 15th
1,000 dead; 200,000 displaced
there are talks that the parties in the conflict are going to move towards reconciliation, but is this possible?
is this conflict ethnically based or political?
oil rich but poor people
Dinka: biggest ethnic group there
Nuer: second biggest ethnic group there
the president is from a different ethnic group than his former VP
potentially started as a political conflict
reconciliation becomes harder when it breaks down along ethnic lines
most Western states have pulled out because ethnic lines and violence moving so fast
Central African Republic
hundreds dead; 500,000 displaced
escalated recently in December
intense refugee problem in present-day conflicts
French and AU troops deployed as external intervention
religious/sectarian or political conflict?
initially a political conflict, then it morphed
over 100,000 dead; millions displaced
Sectarian or political conflict?
intrastate conflicts, between groups in one state but not necessarily contained in that state
refugees + expansion of violence into territories
**Find POLI-341 Notes on Syria
none of the three as yet have been classified as a war; they are all “conflicts"
traditionally, war meant 1,000+ casualties and inter-state conflicts, but what we see now is widespread devastation within a single
state that won’t meet these requirements
kinds of conflict less commonly explored
actual warfare has been decreasing
States/Regions at Risk of Conflict?
Lebanon? Egypt because of Morsi? Brazil because of protests over massive inequality and the World Cup + Olympics? East
China Sea because conflict with Japan over shipping rights and who owns what islands?
most in Africa and South Asia, according to map on slide
What Causes War/Conflict?
trying to expand a state’s territory
greed theory, how war can be seen as profitable
more Cold War thinking
US containment policy against communism (think Afghanistan)
a lot in the current intra-state conflicts
whenever new states form or larger states break apart, there is usually a surge in political violence
sometimes states stabilize in the long term, sometimes