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Lecture 8

Lecture 8- Iran Case Study

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McGill University
Political Science
POLI 360
Julie Norman

Clear and Present DangerWhy do we fear new states with nuclear weapons Waltzfear offensive motivesfear of accidents new states dont have enough of arsenal for deterrencenukes in hands of terrorists andor irrational leaders decreases western influenceAre these fears rational Empirically supported to be fair none of these have really happened with new nuclear states compare to conventional weaponssmall armsIrans Nuclear ProgramHistory1970s supported by Europe US2002 opposition group reveals secret construction ofuranium enrichment plant at Natanzheavywater reactor at Arak Plutonium 2005 IAEA refers Iran to UNSCstarted trying to get access to these sitesinitial visits but could not conclude anythingIran wasnt being fully cooperative so referred to UNSC2006 UNSC demands Iran halt enrichment no confirm or deny but they are worried 20062013 UNSC multilateral sanctions in 5 waves also different states have bilateral sanctions with IranDoes Iran actually want nuclear weapons Whypublic statements Pres Rouhani in Septemeber 2013SL Khamenei in February 20132005 fatwa Iran and the NPTIran signed and ratified NPT 1970Rt to peaceful use of nuclear techIran has hung its hat on this right to peaceful nuclear technology all these yearsSigned but NOT ratified Additional ProtocolsSafeguards for Special Inspections and Safeguards Inspections by IAEArequire reporting nuclear sites in developmentconstruction not just operatingnoncompliance vs violationnot proven or confirmed that they have been producing nuclear weapons so technically not in violation of nonproliferation clausethey havent been transparent though LEU 35 vs HEU 2090 U235full disclosure of sitesfull access to sites routine vs special visitsN
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