POLI 222 Lecture 13: Party Identification and Campaign Dynamics

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Party Identification and Campaign Dynamics 2/23/2015 7:07:00 PM
-Do campaigns actually matter?
Understand role of partisan identification in the way voters think about
campaigns, and presumably their vote
-we care about their vote- we cannot actually measure it
-campaign that seemed to be interesting- not sleeping their way through
electoral result
-media effects on campaign
How might campaigns matter?
-What are the kinds of evidence you would look for-specific period of time in
which candidates are seeking to persuade you
see changes in: vote intention, voter, turnout attentiveness others
campaign: 40 odd days- a period of time in candidate- fairly distinct period
of time
one ends another starts
key effects: priming, persuasion
Within a specific period of time- you would look if vote intention shifts- as
you watch- is there shifts that are significant
voter turnout- maybe campaign matters in who shows up to vote
-voters who are more sympathetic to you, actually show up and cast a
ballet- so part of if they matter, is do you get a bump in voter turnout- are
things happening in a campaign that are important
-change in voter attentiveness- people accessing information in a diferent
way perhaps then they did before, people paying attention
Priming effect:
- not changing necessarily what a person thinks but what it is that a person
thinks about. Not about changing anybodys particular position on an issue-
it’s about which issues become the critical ones- how it is that choices are
defined and framed- how they are primed.
ex. On child care issues- I’m a big spender- something they are strong
as a voter I think very conservatively- so perhaps on financial regulations-
all about getting the gov. out of it- so conervatives think this is the way to
go- so they want an election fought on that issue because they are stronger
on that issue so the campaign becomes about what the issues are of the
campaign and whoever wins on that round is then stronger- not interested in
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changing the view, but on how issues are primed- about which issues they
think about not how they think about them.
1998 election campaign- priming- once people believe it is an
election primed this way- does it have an effect on vote
Persuasion effect:
- Some shifts/changes their mind on how they think of a particular issue.
During the course of an election campaign, ex. You walk in thinking no
budget limit on child care and after it is underway, you start to shift your
position- dumb decision- shifted your position. In terms of a persuasion
effect- shift of voters, how they think on particular issues.
PID: Unmoved Mover?
-Unmoved: is it stable over the course f a campaign
-utility of party identification:
1) is it a movement- is it stable over a defined period of time. And for the
purposes of campaign- interested in stability of party ID in that period of
time- is it stable at an aggarigate or individual level throughout a campaign
period
2)Johnson- aggregate level of party ID stability
-Mover:
Does PID move other things in that stability
Is PID important in how it interacts with other things- like issues in the
campaign, party leader evaluations- does it act as a filter in the way we take
in information and make decisions about a political campaign
identifiers- stable and solid PARTY ID vs. non-identifiers- do they
exhibit different behavior, different evaluations and choices w/
respect to campaign information- do identifiers seem differently
different identifiers- do conservative identifiers see things different
from conservative identifiers ex.
Interaction Effect(ex. Years of education):
The effect of one variable on another depends on the existence of
the third
graphical rep. of effects of one variable on another- how long you
been in school, does that impact the amount of money you make-
your income- impact of one variable on your income
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does that casual relationship change with the existence of the third-
does years of education interact with gender, does it yield a diff.
relationship with further income
marginal impact of education is stronger if you are one gender than
another- if there was no interaction effect there would be the same
slope- no significantly different slope
example of how one variable can have an impact on the relationship
of two others.- exploring in campaign settings
if partisan identification is stable- does it interact with something in
a way that it affects an outcome- is there an interaction effect with
campaign results
Johnston(1980 election):
Graph-unmoved?- is partisan ID unmoved during the course of an
election campaign
election amaign started in early 3ovembe, till end of 3ovember-
each of these days, the research team telephone polled each
respondants- each day they respond to the servay- critical question
taps into identification and your voter attention
conservative vote and identification- smoothed it out, 7 days
moving average-smoother than they would actually be
time line on X axis and percentage of respondants on y
tory identification-
talking about aggregate stability about tory party ID- those
respondants that are attached to the tory party
bobbling across time- but finding is, the differences across time are
pretty stable- imperically speaking, across this time
researchs lokking for- to test stability across time- reasonable for
tory identification-
-Liberal identification: same story as tory, starts at 27 odd and dips down at
the beginning of campaign and kind of lines up after, all in all liberal
identification is reasonably stable during campaign period.
Researchers- this criteria during this particular point of time is met-
party ID is stable for liberals and conservatives
erosion at start of campaign then pick up speed when conservatives
lost it- something happened in the middle of the election campaign-
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