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Lecture 10

POLI 340 Lecture 10: Palestine
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Department
Political Science
Course Code
POLI 340
Professor
Rex Brynen

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Lecture - Palestine 13/10/2016
Regime dynamics: Palestine
Gaza (Hamas): suppression of Fatah, Quartet (US, Russia, EU, UN) conditions
o Since 2007, when Hamas took over Gaza, much international aid to Gaza dropped off,
until Hamas accepts the two-state solution
Israeli sanctions/blockade tunnel
o Israeli fires at boats that cross the blockade with machine guns, cannons
o Israel imposed sanctions on the Gaza strip idea was to reduce Hamas support by putting
the people into poverty
Ensure humanitarian conditions wont crash into famine, since UN Refugee aid
present
o led to construction of tunnels from Egypt to Gaza, many goods smuggled through tunnels
many tunnels were closed after Morsi, many more after Sisi
Gaza wars (2008, 2012, 2014), periodic wars have led to a deterrent relationship with Israel since
Hamas doesn’t want a devastating fight, and Israelis don’t want to reoccupy Gaza and don’t want
Hamas to attack
o Hamas and radical jihadists
Not much “resistance” not very “Islamist”, at times have to act tough politically
o Trying to run Gaza under conditions of siege, little natural resources and aid (would not
be sustainable if there wasn’t foreign aid)
Efforts at Fatah-Hamas reconciliation
o Strategically, both leaders recognize the split is counterproductive for Palestinian
interests, but neither are willing to compromise
Arab Spring: Jordan
Arab Spring spurs come pro-reform protests
o East Bank (tribal, conservative) vs. Palestinian divisions used to undercut these,
implication that any far reaching political reform would empower Palestinians and
weaken power of East Bank political elites
Growing criticism of Abdullah (and Queen Rania) by East bank regime constituency
o Vague promises of reform, civil service wages increased, (financial aid from Gulf)
o New PMs
New parliamentary elections in Jan 2013
o Elections law retains many controversial elements (27 of 150 seats for parties, 15 for
women, 108 single vote/multi-member constituencies)
Could only cast one vote main reason for giving vote to one candidate?
Tribal relations were single largest consideration, honesty and integrity
the second
o Significant discontent for the direction that Jordan is heading partially due to increased
sensitivity from the Arab Spring
Economy is a major source of grievance, people aren’t concerned with political
reforms
People believe stability and security is going the right way with Jordan
Arab Spring: Palestine
Economic slowdown + fiscal austerity + absence of peace process = “Palestinian Spring”,
protests in WB summer/fall of 2012
o Partly supported by Fatah, unhappy with Fayyad
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Description
Lecture - Palestine – 13/10/2016 Regime dynamics: Palestine  Gaza (Hamas): suppression of Fatah, Quartet (US, Russia, EU, UN) conditions o Since 2007, when Hamas took over Gaza, much international aid to Gaza dropped off, until Hamas accepts the two-state solution  Israeli sanctions/blockade – tunnel o Israeli fires at boats that cross the blockade with machine guns, cannons o Israel imposed sanctions on the Gaza strip – idea was to reduce Hamas support by putting the people into poverty  Ensure humanitarian conditions wont crash into famine, since UN Refugee aid present o led to construction of tunnels from Egypt to Gaza, many goods smuggled through tunnels  many tunnels were closed after Morsi, many more after Sisi  Gaza wars (2008, 2012, 2014), periodic wars have led to a deterrent relationship with Israel since Hamas doesn’t want a devastating fight, and Israelis don’t want to reoccupy Gaza and don’t want Hamas to attack o Hamas and radical jihadists  Not much “resistance” not very “Islamist”, at times have to act tough politically o Trying to run Gaza under conditions of siege, little natural resources and aid (would not be sustainable if there wasn’t foreign aid)  Efforts at Fatah-Hamas reconciliation o Strategically, both leaders recognize the split is counterproductive for Palestinian interests, but neither are willing to compromise Arab Spring: Jordan  Arab Spring spurs come pro-reform protests o East Bank (tribal, conservative) vs. Palestinian divisions used to undercut these, implication that any far reaching political reform would empower Palestinians and weaken power of East Bank political elites  Growing criticism of Abdullah (and Queen Rania) by East bank regime constituency o Vague promises of reform, civil service wages increased, (financial aid from Gulf) o New PMs  New parliamentary elections in Jan 2013 o Elections law retains many controversial elements (27 of 150 seats for parties, 15 for women, 108 single vote/multi-member constituencies)  Could only cast one vote – main reason for giving vote to one candidate?  Tribal relations were single largest consideration, honesty and integrity the second o Significant discontent for the direction that Jordan is heading – partially due to increased sensitivity from the Arab Spring  Economy is a major source of grievance, people aren’t concerned with political reforms  People believe stability and security is going the right way with Jordan Arab Spring: Palestine  Economic slowdown + fiscal austerity + absence of peace process = “Palestinian Spring”, protests in WB summer/fall of 2012 o Partly supported by Fatah, unhappy with Fayyad o There were protests in 2012, against what was then government of Salam Fayyad  Withdrawal of Hamas HQ from Damascus o Shift to Gaza and (military?) wings, political vs. military wing of Hamas o In some ways weakened Hamas, lost territorial sanctuary etc.  Hamas hoping that election of MB in Egypt (and Islamists elsewhere) will strengthen its position) o Impact of Egyptian coup, Hamas ideologically sympathetic to Syrian opposition, it wasn’t willing to back the regime’s position  Attempts to appear neutral didn’t go well o Relationships with Egypt improved, ended when Morsi government was overthrown, Sisi government views Hamas as a terrorist organization  Cooperates with Israel for anti-Islam movements  2014-15: technocratic “national unity” government under PM Rami Hamdallah o Resigns, cabinet shuffles (wanted a neutral cabinet of technocrats to unify the government), Hamas said they didn’t agree to this, but haven’t decried it either Looking Ahead: Jordan  Repercussions of Syrian civil war, Iraq, rise of ISIS – severely muted reform movem
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