POLI 444 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Cuban Missile Crisis, Best Alternative To A Negotiated Agreement, Public Diplomacy

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Lecture 4
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Bargaining
Bargaining starts from rational choice theory and game theory (prisoners dilemma
and chicken)  people will chose the rational one
Precondition 1
oNeed mixed motives  some common interests and some different ones
oTo negotiate, they need to know they have a common interest but some
differences where they are to bargain
Schelling – talk is cheap but you talk through gestures
oSignalling is done to convey meaning to the other party
oIR is about talking
Precondition 2
oStrategic interaction – you know that the other party has a preference and visa
versa
Mutual interdependence
My preferences and the ability to get these preferences is dependent on
you
oBargaining becomes a battle of wills
oHow can you obtain concessions by playing on his/her idea of your
preferences and what you think they’ll do
Precondition 3
oCommunication of commitment
oShow them how serious you are about the outcomes
oThis is complicated because talking will not do the trick
oMust convey preferences in another way
“Costly Signal” – making a commitment that is costly to yourself and to the other
party to show them how serious you are
Precondition 4
oBasics – ways to sacrifice your freedom
oTo have influence over the other party, you have to send a costly signal and
sacrifice your freedom to obtain leverage
Gradation of signals (Schelling)
Institutional mechanisms (Schelling) – use public opinion in order to get your opinion
across
oPutting your own political reputation at stake
Leave the last clear chance to the other
oCommunicating that this is the other person’s decision
Value of private diplomacy
oPublic diplomacy = face saving  causes difficult situations where honor is at
stake to your domestic public opinion
Two-level games (Putnam)
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