SOCI 424 Lecture Notes - Spurious Relationship, Contingency Table, Zeppelin

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9 Feb 2013

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Research methods
Independent and dependent variables
Is divorce related to teen pregnancy? Can we turn this into an explanatory study? So you’re a
researcher and you decide I am going to test this hypothesis
Hypothesis are explanatory, they look at research between variables
Identify parents with teenage daughters; the independent variable here is simple table. The
independable variables marital status and teen pregnancy, keep in mind that you must be able
to manipulate the independent variable status.
Married and divorce independent variable
We have collected data on 100 married coupled with teenage daughters, collected data with
100 divorced with teenaged daughters
Table contingency table, slam dog.
Marital status
Married divorced teen pregnancy
25% 75% yes 100%
75% 25% no 100%
100% 100%
Divorce is related to an increase in teen pregnancy. Not that the relationship is perfect, a perfect
relationship would be under married and you would have 0% under each cells.
Contingency table: most useful tools for analysing serving data
2 variables marital status [married/divorce]
Is it associated with teen physical condition? [pregnant/not pregnant]?
Statistical correlation. A positive relationship and positive correlation
As the value of the IV increases
As divorce increases teen pregnancy increases
What is a negative correlation
A decrease in the independent variable, causes an increase in the dependent variable
Spurious correlation is not real it’s something else that’s causing this… ex: when u compare
hospitals with homes, more people die in hospitals, but do hospitals cause these deaths? Or is it
that spurious? It probably is. Why? who and what kind of people do we find in hospitals?
Doctors, nurses, sick people, elderly old people, injured, people who live in the home by
contrast. Perhaps some sick people but mostly healthy people live at home
Do hospitals cause death?
After finding the sick people the correlation disappears. When its gone you immediately know
those people who took it out. They cause the deaths in hospitals, they are the people who are
already sick in the hospitals that’s what spurious correlation is
Between premature deaths and leaving only doctors, nurses, cleaning staff, administers
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What is global warming argument?
Co2 concentration in the atmosphere increase, global temps increase, positive temps between
increasing amounts increases c02 and temp
If you can control for something does the relationship disappear?
When u get spots in the sun, the sun burns hotter
The more spots u see the hotter the sun burns
The little ice age was a period from 1650-1850 they were virtually known as sun spots
That means the sun is cooler
Large amounts of sun spots
Well before the ice age there was a period called mediator warm period
When the Vikings first approached
Vikings settled there and they also settled in Newfoundland, they long arrived in Columbus.
They settled in Greenland which they called vine land
It was warm there, and c02 levels were low
Vikings had to leave newfoundland and they had to leave Greenland
There was no change in c02 levels
Temperature during this period is cold, rapid increase in c02. Yet we have a cooling period that
last for 30 years
Temps haven’t changed but c02 has gone over and changed
If historical temp remain unchanged then temp levels remain changed
You don’t have to worry about warm whether just worry about cold weather, because of
starvations of the poor and the need for warmth
C02 levels are 100 of times higher than the planet and locked ice
The last ice age ended 1200 years ago
The idea of shutting down oil sands and rob Canada of those recourses it is based on a flawed
There is no evidence for that
As the years warms up, ice melts, and as they melt sea levels rise, they have fallen
At least be aware that not everybody agrees with it
100 of people disagree with it
Indicators of globalization, 1982-2006
Globalization capital and money
Internet hosts
Internet use is another indicator of millions
# of international organizations
Marshall McLuhan he is the scholar that gave the term global village. He says that the globe
today has many similarities with societies, [global village]
People who live in villages, the way of looking at the world is parochial
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