Class Notes (836,153)
Canada (509,662)
Classics (957)
Lecture 23

CLASSICS 1M03 Lecture 23: Political Science 1AB3 2017 Lecture 8b nuclear overhead

3 Pages
33 Views
Unlock Document

Department
Classics
Course
CLASSICS 1M03
Professor
Claude Eilers
Semester
Winter

Description
Political Science 1AB3 2017 Lecture 8b: To proliferate or not to proliferate - Did the threat of nuclear annihilation prevent the Cold War from getting hot? - Supporters of deterrence offer additional case support: - 1969 China-Soviet conflict - 1999 India-Pakistan clash - In many respects this is a critical case for proponents of nuclear deterrence - This was a case where it was least likely for nuclear deterrence theory to hold: o New nuclear powers o Limited Second Strike Capability o Less than Mutually Assured Destruction o History of conflict - Despite all the factors weighing against deterrence (and the fact that the conflict went right to the brink), in the end a full scale war was avoided Given the deterrence story, is the proliferation of nuclear weapons a security problem or a security solution? - There are “Proliferation Optimists” and “Proliferation Pessimists” (Waltz and Sagan) Proliferation Optimists: - If deterrence worked in the Cold War, then it should work in other cases as well - If more states are armed with nuclear warheads, all states will have to be more cautious in their foreign policy - Proliferation can produce peace Proliferation Pessimists: - A). Deterrence depends on certain assumptions that are unrealistic 1 - B). Even if we accept the logical persuasiveness of nuclear deterrence theory (and not everyone does), it does not necessarily follow that nuclear proliferation will result in increased security - Even if we accept the argument (hypothetically) that nuclear deterrence will prevent nuclear war 99.9% of the time o The potential consequences associated with a 0.1% failure rate may more than overwhelm the potential benefits of years of stability - According to critics, the more states that have nuclear weapons, the greater the likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used - C). The present security environment presents several, perhaps insurmountable new challenges to the effectiveness of deterrence - Deterrence will only work if there is an identifiable target to be deterred and retaliate
More Less

Related notes for CLASSICS 1M03

Log In


OR

Join OneClass

Access over 10 million pages of study
documents for 1.3 million courses.

Sign up

Join to view


OR

By registering, I agree to the Terms and Privacy Policies
Already have an account?
Just a few more details

So we can recommend you notes for your school.

Reset Password

Please enter below the email address you registered with and we will send you a link to reset your password.

Add your courses

Get notes from the top students in your class.


Submit