CLASSICS 1M03 Lecture Notes - Lecture 23: Arms Control, International Atomic Energy Agency, Nuclear Technology
Document Summary
Political science 1ab3 2017 lecture 8b: to proliferate or not to proliferate. Supporters of deterrence offer additional case support: In many respects this is a critical case for proponents of nuclear deterrence. This was a case where it was least likely for nuclear deterrence theory to hold: new nuclear powers, limited second strike capability, less than mutually assured destruction, history of conflict. Despite all the factors weighing against deterrence (and the fact that the conflict went right to the brink), in the end a full scale war was avoided. There are proliferation optimists and proliferation pessimists (waltz and sagan) If deterrence worked in the cold war, then it should work in other cases as well. If more states are armed with nuclear warheads, all states will have to be more cautious in their foreign policy. Deterrence depends on certain assumptions that are unrealistic.
