ECON 1BB3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 28: Fixed Exchange-Rate System, Business Cycle, Money Supply

51.The Fed is conducting expansionary monetary policy if it:

A increases the discount rate, buys bonds, and sets a lower target for the federal funds rate.

B decreases the discount rate and sells bonds.

C sets a lower target for the federal funds rate and buys bonds in the open market.

D increases reserve requirements and buys bonds in the open market.

E buys bonds in the open market and raises the discount rate.

52.If banks become concerned about future conditions and decide to hold larger excess reserves, which of the following is a likely result?

A A rise in interest rates

B An increase in bond prices

C An increase in aggregate demand

D An increase in the money supply

E Both C and D

53.The Fed is under no obligation to coordinate its actions with fiscal policy. And in fact, the Fed may take actions specifically designed to counteract some piece of fiscal policy. An example of fiscal and monetary policies with opposite effects is:

A an increase in taxes and increased sales of bonds by the Fed.

B a decrease in government spending and an increase in the discount rate.

C a decrease in taxes and a decrease in the target for the federal funds rate.

D an increase in government spending and an increase in reserve requirements.

E a decrease in taxes and increased purchases of bonds by the Fed.

54.In the fictitious nation of Zagora, a worker can produce either 5 books or 10 televisions in an hour. In neighboring Plovdiv, a worker can produce either 3 books or 5 televisions in an hour. Which statement about this situation is true?

A Zagora has comparative advantage in the production of books.

B Zagora has comparative advantage in the production of televisions.

C Workers in Plovdiv can’t possibly compete against the super-productive workers in Zagora.

D Workers in Zagora can’t be expected to compete against the low-wage workers in Plovdiv.

E None of the above

55.Given the U.S. has a current account deficit, a large increase in the demand for U.S. computer programs among Japanese residents will have all the following effects except:

A an increase in the exchange rate, expressed in yen per dollar.

B an increase in the U.S. capital account surplus.

C an increase in investment in Japan.

D an decrease in the U.S. trade deficit.

E It may have all the above effects.

56.Fiscal policy affects exchange rates because:

A as government spending increases, the government must buy more and more goods and services from foreign countries.

B as government debt increases, interest rates rise, and the value of the currency rises.

C as government debt increases, interest rates rise, and the value of the currency falls.

D as the money supply increases, interest rates fall, and the value of the currency rises.

E as the money supply increases, interest rates fall, and the value of the currency falls.

57.There are many kinds of trade restrictions, and trade restrictions are put into place for many reasons. Which of the following is not a reason to use trade restrictions?

A To save natural habitats from over-use

B To protect the jobs of workers in certain industries

C To make a political statement regarding the labor policies of another nation

D To compensate for higher taxes placed on domestic producers

E To create a lower prices for domestic consumers

58.If the value of the U.S. dollar in foreign exchange markets rises:

A U.S. exports will become relatively less expensive.

B capital inflows into the United States will increase.

C people in the U.S. will purchase fewer imports.

D U.S. exports will likely decrease.

E All of the above

59.Saying that leakages equal injections give the equation:

A T + S + X = G + I + M

B Y = C + S + T

C Y = C + I + G + X - M

D T + S + M = C + G + I + X

E T + S + M = G + I + X

Macroeconomics

1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nation’s spending amount which increases the economy’s deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. That’s what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that “you can’t be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneously—at least I can’t see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.” He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesn’t agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesn’t change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates aren’t declining meaning investment wouldn’t continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states “Most spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.” He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soro’s point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states “The other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.” He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: “But when you have a collapse of credit there’s only one source of credit that is still credible, and that’s the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.” I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugman’s IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugman’s points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".